It's like the boss of Citicorp said back in 2008, "as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance". If you withdraw from the market entirely then you'll definitely lose. So they try to time the market and hope to get out when the music stops. Didn't exactly work out well for Citicorp.
Firstly we don't factually know if it's a bubble. Maybe there's some beyond LLM breakthrough and everything turns out right? Even if it's a bubble, we've no idea how long it has to run. Could all burst tomorrow, could be in a few years. In some scenarios you're going to miss a lot of growth by exiting the market now.
Well, but in that case all we mean by "It's a bubble" is "I am pessimistic".
That's fine... I guess. Somewhat boring. I have no clue why we would feel the need to dress it up and make it sound like insight into the market.
Hm. So what's the idea. All of FAANG, all investors, they all do it like that citibank person said, who failed catastrophically, because...? At best this tale reads to me: Even if you are fully aware, and super big, you are high risk of losing it all, and most people will lose it all. Is everyone who was involved in building these mega corps by investing smartly over fairly long periods of time now delusional, at the same time? We can see it, but they can't? Is that what's required to explain it?
I am not much of a trader, but I assume there are always insane opportunities to invest a few billion dollars in high risk/high gain stuff, no? Why wait for AI? You can try to time any market. What explains the enormous amount of money into this one?