Comment by yibg

Comment by yibg 6 hours ago

4 replies

Using people for manufacturing fundamentally will never be cost competitive compared to cheaper markets. There are really only a few ways to resolve this in my view:

1. Give up and just outsource manufacturing and be ok with it

2. Invest heavily in automation, technology etc so we remove cost of labor from the equation. Or at least heavily minimize it

3. Put up trade barriers to artificially raise the cost of imported goods, which is what the current admin is trying to do, at least officially

1. leaves us dependent on other potentially adversarial countries, 3. increases the cost of goods sold so puts a burden on the population. So seems like 2. is the only way to go, if the country can get behind it. But it also inherently won't add a lot of jobs.

petermcneeley 6 hours ago

1. Ok then what do you make? 2. A bit too late for that given that China is also highly automated. 3. You would have to be serious for this to work.

As for your responses. 1 who is "us" 3. I mean some would be automated etc. There is actually data on how little the cost of labor adds to different parts of manufacturing. 2. You at least have a sustainable economy (I dont mean that in an environmental sense)

  • yibg 5 hours ago

    Typically as economies advance there is a shift to services and higher value add / higher skill manufacturing anyways. That can be the explicit strategy for the US as well. Focus on renewables, high tech, aerospace etc instead of the lower margin / lower skill manufacturing.

    They're not mutually exclusive of course. There can be some national protection via tariffs on some types of manufacturing, while investing in automating some other types and just completely ignoring others and keeping those offshore. Problem currently is there doesn't seem to be a much of a strategy.

    • petermcneeley 3 hours ago

      The USA and the west in general is 40 years deep into this crisis and recent developments have not actually made a shift in that trajectory.

      • yibg an hour ago

        It seems like the US in particular isn't able to pick one path and stick with it. The shift towards services has already happened. But investment in silicon, renewables etc is on again off again. There now seems to be a desire to bring all manufacturing jobs back to the US, although it's not clear who wants this or why. e.g. who actually wants clothing and toy manufacturing back in the US?

        So we have a set of ad hoc policies (or EOs), that don't seem to have an overarching goal.