Comment by bulletsvshumans
Comment by bulletsvshumans 6 hours ago
But dividends also result in a concrete financial reward for all shareholders, yes?
Comment by bulletsvshumans 6 hours ago
But dividends also result in a concrete financial reward for all shareholders, yes?
Can you make this argument more rigorous?
I’m just not following the connections here.
It seems like your assumption is that a stock buyback is a short term gain.
One of your arguments is that the strike price for options is set based on a certain amount of stock in circulation, and decreasing that amount will “artificially” raise the stock price, making the options more valuable. I agree that higher stock price benefits those with options, and I would even agree that it is possible that when those strike prices were valued, the valuation did not take into account the possible global change in the amount of stock (although a market would have included this valuation).
I suppose the other part of the argument could be that R&D is good for the stock in the long term in a way that stock buybacks are not… the buybacks pumping up the price of the stock before it is driven into the dirt by competitors who do invest in R&D.
There, I’ve done my best for your argument but I still don’t really believe that increased stock prices for everyone is not benefiting everyone more or less equally.
> It seems like your assumption is that a stock buyback is a short term gain.
My argument is a stock buyback isn't a gain for a long-term, buy-and-hold investor. Unless
a) they sell some of the stock or
b) it pays dividends
they don't see the benefit of a higher stock price or reduced share count.
Qualified dividends and long term capital gains are taxed at the same rate. So anyone who says "buybacks are more tax-advantaged" is leaving out the second part: "because you can borrow against a higher stock price without paying taxes". Since most (non-rich) people don't do that stock buybacks have the same tax (dis)advantage as dividends. If you know of a way to get tax-free money out of a higher stock price other than borrowing on margin, please tell me. I'd love to learn.
> decreasing that amount will “artificially” raise the stock price
It isn't "artificial". There are fewer shares in circulation/more demand for the shares. That legitimately translates into a higher price. But stock options and grants are generally given to employees and especially executives. So a reduced share count and higher share price is particularly good for them.
> One of your arguments is that the strike price for options is set based on a certain amount of stock in circulation
My argument was more that when employees are paid a significant portion of their compensation in stock they tend to sell much of it upon vest (sensibly) in order to diversify or even just to pay their bills. Ergo, being frequent sellers, they benefit from the higher stock price more than they would from regular dividend payments. A higher stock price directly translates into higher compensation. Wouldn't this be a powerful incentive for company management to prefer buybacks over dividends?
> I suppose the other part of the argument could be that R&D is good for the stock in the long term
I didn't say anything about R&D spending. A company should return as much profit to shareholders as it sees fit.
I was rebutting the common, I believe simple-minded, argument that buybacks and dividends are completely equivalent. Even though the company spends the same amount of money, I think they are different in some very significant ways.
I think I'm mostly agreeing. Anyway here's my story.
Buybacks can be good or bad for shareholders, depending on the buyback price.
Example. I take $1000 and securitize it as 1000 shares. The company sells the shares for $1 each. This is a no-fee closed fund, whatever. I'm the "CEO". I personally buy 1 share.
Anyway, one day the stock trades at $0.90 and the company buys back 500 shares at that price. (How $0.90? Maybe the largest shareholder was distressed and needed cash, maybe somebody didn't read the SEC filings. Maybe "the ticker tells the whole story" and the ticker told $0.90 for a few days. It doesn't matter.) Now the company holds $550 and has 500 shares outstanding. Each share owns $1.10 of USD. Expenses are zero. I kindly volunteer my services as CEO and sole employee.
Pretty soon the stock might trade around $1.10. (Why $1.10? wHo knows?) The people who sold for $0.90 might regret that decision now. Continuing shareholders make money if they sell now. Was this "good for shareholders"? Depends on which shareholder.
Now I (the CEO) decide the company will do a buyback. The company offers $2 a share. I sell my own share for $2. To make it simple, say the company buys back 275 shares at $2. Now it's broke. The remaining shares trade for ... whatever. Somewhere between $3 and $0? ($3 because growth rate!)
I personally doubled my investment. Anybody who sold at $2 also did well.
Buybacks can be good or bad for shareholders.
He understands it quite a bit better than the person he is replying to
4. Those who intend to re-invest all returns in to the stock, who avoid a taxable event when their ownership of the company goes up without having to first pay tax for the dividend.
A stock buyback rewards all stockholders equally. Those who sell, get their reward in cash. Those who do not sell, get their reward in the proportion of their ownership of the company going up.
There is supply and demand to consider. Buybacks create a tendency toward higher share prices, but only while they continue. That demand cuts off when the buybacks stop.
If the buybacks are at a discount to whatever the stock turns out to have been worth at the time, then that benefits all the shareholders. That can be a great use of money for all shareholders.
But buybacks at inflated prices benefit only exiting shareholders. Exiting shareholders tend to include hired management. Of course nobody really knows the valuation that well, so obviously there's a guessing game.
This is pretty hard to argue against for anybody who agrees that valuation is a thing at all.
> Those who intend to re-invest all returns in to the stock
Sell the stock then use the gains to buy the stock? I'm very confused by this.
> without having to first pay tax for the dividend
Long term capital gains and dividends are taxed at the same rate. The only tax-free way to benefit from a higher share price (that I know of) is to borrow against it.
> get their reward in the proportion of their ownership of the company going up.
Which only matters if the company pays dividends, or the shareholders eventually sell.
The company has some money. They choose to return it to shareholders. There are two legal ways to do so: Buy back some stock, or issue a dividend.
Now assume I am a long-term investor, who invested money into a company, and wants to keep all that money in the company, instead of taking money out.
If the company pays a dividend, I can put the money they paid me back into the company, but I have to pay capital income tax on the money in between. If they buy back some stock, I have essentially fully reinvested my money to grow my share of ownership in that company, but I have not paid any tax on this, and will only have to do so at the end. As I get to grow compound interest on my money, I will come out much better in the long term.
> Those who do not sell, get their reward in the proportion of their ownership of the company going up.
This is incorrect. If the company buys back say $100m worth of its stock, it's true that the individual shares remaining represent a larger fraction of the company, BUT the company itself is worth $100m less after the transaction (because it has spent that $100m on purchase of something that can't be added to the balance sheet - basically incinerated that money from company's point of view, similarly to how paying out dividends is "destroying" money). These two factors cancel out perfectly, and the book value per share remains unchanged.
Yes. This is correct. Share buybacks are financially equivalent to a dividend from the company's perspective, and slightly better from the shareholder's perspective because they can choose when to take the dividend and pay capital gains tax instead of income tax on it.
Qualified dividends (stock held more than 60 days) and long term capital gains are taxed at the same rate.
Good point, but that only applies to individual, not corporate shareholders.
> delivering to themselves the tax-advantaged equivalent of a 4% dividend?
Long-term gains and qualified dividends (shares held longer than 60 days) are taxed at the same rate. What's the tax advantage here?
This is true. I'd still file tax-loss harvesting under "advanced maneuvers employed by high net worth people".
At a societal level, and I understand this is a completely different point, I also question whether it's prudent to allow tax dodging this way. We already tax labor heavily and at the same time we incentivize companies to improve productivity (read: use less labor). How do we pay for society without taxing some of the productivity (read: profits) or taxing labor even more? You can only cut so many services.
What is your definition of "benefit"? Assuming a buyback increases share prices, why would shareholders in general be indifferent?
Because if I don't intend to sell right now, and the company is otherwise a healthy, going concern that can pay sustainable dividends, the actual share price is irrelevant to me. If anything, given my belief in the company, a lower share price is better. I can buy more shares!
But you now own a larger percentage of the company because you own the same number of a smaller total number of shares outstanding, so you benefit whether you are a seller or a holder. If you intend to buy more it is neutral because the price per share goes up, but each share represents proportionally more.
If you ever want to sell, getting in the limit nothing for the shares might matter, no? There are other things: for example, share based M&A or compensation or other investors with different preferences - no relevance or interaction?
You're mixing up points 2 and 3. Anyone can sell, but buybacks benefit mostly sellers.
Borrowing against stock is mostly something for HNW people.
> shareeholders benefit from reduced share count because it increases their claim on future profits
So...dividends? Or when they eventually sell? What if I never want to sell?
Buybacks are still better if you want to hold forever and don't care about share price. With a dividend distribution you must pay taxes and reinvest the diminished proceeds. You end up with a smaller share of the company than in the buyback scenario. Example:
A: Hold $10 of stock. Buyback of 1$ per share. You're left with $10 of stock. B: Hold $10 of stock. Dividend of 1$ per share. You're left with 9$ of stock and $1 cash - taxes payed. Once reinvested you have $9 + (1 * tax rate) in stock.
You're making two mistakes: One is thinking that dividends are magic money that do not cause share prices to fall in exact accordance with the distribution and the other is that buybacks lift the share price somehow (they do not, see Modigliani-Miller).
> all shareholders
That's the key phrase, they benefit all shareholders. Buybacks on the other hand only benefit the following shareholders:
1. those with regularly vesting stock options and stock grants - basically employees. For non-tech companies especially, this only means high-ranking employees
2. those who intend to sell - that is, soon-to-be-ex shareholders
3. those who borrow against their stock - typically high-net-worth individuals who own a lot of the stock
Stock buybacks are thus a non-egalitarian way to return profits. To reward all shareholders equally, pay dividends.