Comment by screye

Comment by screye 15 hours ago

31 replies

Very impressive. The economic angle is a bit confusing. Wonder why China thought this was a worthy investment. Guizhou is a poor part of China, without much international tourism or trade.

Wikipedia indicates it is meant to increase tourism, but even China's most attractive regions (Beijing, Shanghai, Great Wall, Chengdu, Chongqing) are under-visited. I can't imagine that Guizhou will be on foreign tourist's agenda for at least a couple of decades. I think this is an attempt by the local govt. to get more internal tourism. It might work out. We'll see.

maxglute 11 hours ago

> reduces travel time between the two sides of the canyon from two hours to two minutes.

Think of it this way.

Every 2 hours round trip to 2 minutes saves imported fossil. For trucking/freight that's like ~$80 of diesel both ways.

PRC construction workers, though less abundant is cheaper than it ever will be. So best time to build infra is always now, especially one that reduces long tail imports.

Every piece of infra that cuts time (apart from cutting X time) is basically frontloading (domestic) steel and concrete to reduce future oil imports (and emissions). Rough napkin math, 2B rmb construction cossts = ~3m barrels of oil, 2b kms of travel. Shaving off 2hrs (guestimate ~150km) and it pays itself off in imported fuel metric between ~10m trips (for freight , more for passenger). Guizhou has 40m people, if a fraction goes to see the bridge, do some tourist shit (induced demand) it would go a long way to basically subsidize a bridge that cut logistics times and wear on tear for the region.

  • codethief 34 minutes ago

    > So best time to build infra is always now

    What about maintenance costs?

  • Fraterkes 2 hours ago

    Why is construction cheaper than it ever will be? Because wages are rising in China?

  • davedx 4 hours ago

    Fantastic analysis of the merits of infrastructure investment. Thanks for working the numbers.

lm28469 an hour ago

> Guizhou is a poor part of China

Look at Schenzen in the 70s... If you want your country to move forward you need infrastructure, otherwise poor parts stay poor

AngryData 8 hours ago

Could not part of its poverty problem be caused by the restrictive travel time and rough terrain that this bridge avoids and could help them become prosperous? If you only build prosperous things for prosperous areas, poorer areas will never get better and could even get worse in comparison as competing becomes even harder.

Its like if you put a dimensional portal across a Great Lake, even if neither side of the portal is currently not very prosperous, the fact that hours of ferry turned into minutes of travel would be a huge boon to both sides and gather attention, investments, and economic benefits that could turn both sides into prosperous cities.

vjvjvjvjghv 26 minutes ago

That's how you develop a country. If you always go by short term economics, nothing will ever get done.

epolanski 14 hours ago

> The economic angle is a bit confusing.

We don't need an economic angle to build great things that help people.

It's a bridge, it's meant to be a shortcut from point A to B.

We aren't just cogwheels in an economic system, there's more to life and progress as humans.

  • stickfigure 6 hours ago

    Bridges are expensive to build and to maintain. Maybe people could be helped better other ways; economics is about making choices with limited resources.

    • SturgeonsLaw 5 hours ago

      Guess China's resources aren't as limited as some of their competitors

    • arethuza 6 hours ago

      I've just finished "The Power Broker" about Robert Moses and it mentions a few times that bridges are actually fairly inexpensive to maintain?

    • imtringued 4 hours ago

      That's not economics, that's optimization with inequality constraints.

  • [removed] 9 hours ago
    [deleted]
  • nickpp 6 hours ago

    > We don't need an economic angle [...] We aren't just cogwheels in an economic system

    This kind of thinking is exactly how people go bankrupt. "But I deserve those shoes" "I need a Starbucks to get the day started" "This McMansion would make me happy" "I'd rather commute in a BMW than a Toyota"

    • Tade0 2 hours ago

      It's paradoxical really. On one hand this mindset leads to bankruptcies, on the other it creates demand necessary to grow an economy.

      There's probably a balance to be struck somewhere between the two approaches, but I wouldn't know where it is, as I stay firmly on the frugal side.

  • Hnrobert42 9 hours ago

    There is an opportunity cost.

    • dotancohen 6 hours ago

      I believe that the saving four hours (two hours each way) to travel from or to the city, multiplied by the amount of current and potential vehicles, is a clear opportunity benefit.

      Not to mention the fuel saved and pollution prevented. And increased economic development for the city.

ch33zer 14 hours ago

Having spent a lot of time in Japan, construction there was a way to provide money to poor regions. You build some big project and pay people good wages and encourage growth of local industry. Not saying it's good or bad but the economics may be secondary to these goals

lijok 6 hours ago

> The economic angle is a bit confusing. Wonder why China thought this was a worthy investment.

American mindset

  • coderatlarge 4 hours ago

    having crossed one of these superlative Guizhou bridges i can attest to their ability to inspire a sense of wonder like other large-scale human accomplishments.

  • simianwords 5 hours ago

    No this is a very good question to ask.

    • raddan 3 hours ago

      Not the least of which is the fact that infrastructure needs to be maintained. The US has a lot of infrastructure and we are in a phase now where we are having to make hard decisions about what to keep. In my neck of the woods, which is mountainous, many bridges have closed and it looks like they may not come back. Presumably China understands the long-term costs of infrastructure so I wonder what their analysis is. It would be kind of crazy to build something like this on spec…

      Prior generations made these same decisions too. I’ve discovered that the area I live in used to have a fair number of electric trams. They all went away with the advent of the automobile.

ChrisMarshallNY 2 hours ago

I suspect that it's a "bragging rights" thing, more than anything else.

Nations, companies, etc., build these things to "show off." It's nothing new, the Babylonians, Sumerians, and Egyptians did it.

Liftyee 14 hours ago

The Wikipedia page currently also states that it reduces the gorge crossing time from 70 minutes to one minute. So it definitely serves a purpose - whether we each judge that to be worth it is another question.

NooneAtAll3 14 hours ago

> Wonder why China thought this was a worthy investment. Guizhou is a poor part of China

I mean... that's exactly the reason?

Government funds get used to improve poorer regions to spread development. Improving transport links is a good way to do that

Plus it connects the country, which helps long-term stability

Think of these as more of interstate highways kind of projects

dyauspitr 6 hours ago

Because their philosophy is build the infrastructure and the wealth will follow. Fantastic philosophy if you ask me.

tokioyoyo 14 hours ago

Bridge building in China is a way to flex for provinces right now. For better or worse, I guess, but infrastructure investment is cool.

[removed] 6 hours ago
[deleted]
delfinom an hour ago

.....Are you why we don't have infrastructure in the US?

If you want to uplift a region, you invest into it. A bridge that cuts travel time by 2 hours increases domestic trade, it can even increase domestic and international tourism long term.

brnt 5 hours ago

Apart from what others already mentioned (build and improvements will follow): construction is the main tool the CCP uses in padding economic numbers. And that sectors has not been doing well for a while now, with all the unused ghost metropoles sitting idle. These projects are there not just to improve the local region, but also to keep the construction sector afloat.