Comment by potatolicious

Not necessarily? That assumes that the first "good enough" model is a defensible moat - i.e., the first ones to get there becomes the sole purveyors of the Good AI.

In practice that hasn't borne out. You can download and run open weight models now that are spitting distance to state-of-the-art, and open weight models are at best a few months behind the proprietary stuff.

And even within the realm of proprietary models no player can maintain a lead. Any advances are rapidly matched by the other players.

More likely at some point the AI becomes "good enough"... and every single player will also get a "good enough" AI shortly thereafter. There doesn't seem like there's a scenario where any player can afford to stop setting cash on fire and start making money.