Comment by skybrian
It's hard to tell as someone not in the field, but quantum computing seems to be moving faster than that? I'm not sure I believe two years, but:
Harvard physicists working to develop game-changing tech demonstrate 3,000 quantum-bit system capable of continuous operation
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2025/09/clearing-sign...
PsiQuantum Raises $1 Billion, Says Its Computer Will Be Ready in Two Years
As someone not in the field it's hard to distinguish the "quantum startup raised x billions, claims quantum computing x years away" from "fusion startup raised x billions, claims fusion power x years away" headlines every few months for the past 10+ years.
Headlines like these are the outliers to the trend that thus appear more credible to me personally: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45238481