Comment by simonw

Comment by simonw 16 hours ago

45 replies

I think the most interesting numbers in this piece (ignoring the stock compensation part) are:

$4.3 billion in revenue - presumably from ChatGPT customers and API fees

$6.7 billion spent on R&D

$2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT but clearly I've not been paying attention in the right places.

Open question for me: where does the cost of running the servers used for inference go? Is that part of R&D, or does the R&D number only cover servers used to train new models (and presumably their engineering staff costs)?

bfirsh 16 hours ago

Free usage usually goes in sales and marketing. It's effectively a cost of acquiring a customer. This also means it is considered an operating expense rather than a cost of goods sold and doesn't impact your gross margin.

Compute in R&D will be only training and development. Compute for inference will go under COGS. COGS is not reported here but can probably be, um, inferred by filling in the gaps on the income statement.

(Source: I run an inference company.)

  • singron 8 hours ago

    I think it makes the most sense this way, but I've seen it accounted for in other ways. E.g. if free users produce usage data that's valuable for R&D, then they could allocate a portion of the costs there.

    Also, if the costs are split, there usually has to be an estimation of how to allocate expenses. E.g. if you lease a datacenter that's used for training as well as paid and free inference, then you have to decide a percentage to put in COGS, S&M, and R&D, and there is room to juice the numbers a little. Public companies are usually much more particular about tracking this, but private companies might use a proxy like % of users that are paid.

    OpenAI has not been forthcoming about their financials, so I'd look at any ambiguity with skepticism. If it looked good, they would say it.

adamhartenz 16 hours ago

Marketing != advertising. Although this budget probably does include some traditional advertising. It is most likely about building the brand and brand awareness, as well as partnerships etc. I would imagine the sales team is probably quite big, and host all kinds of events. But I would say a big chunk of this "sales and marketing" budget goes into lobbying and government relations. And they are winning big time on that front. So it is money well spent from their perspective (although not from ours). This is all just an educated guess from my experience with budgets from much smaller companies.

  • echelon 16 hours ago

    I agree - they're winning big and booking big revenue.

    If you discount R&D and "sales and marketing", they've got a net loss of "only" $500 million.

    They're trying to land grab as much surface area as they can. They're trying to magic themselves into a trillion dollar FAANG and kill their peers. At some point, you won't be able to train a model to compete with their core products, and they'll have a thousand times the distribution advantage.

    ChatGPT is already a new default "pane of glass" for normal people.

    Is this all really so unreasonable?

    I certainly want exposure to their stock.

    • runako 15 hours ago

      > If you discount R&D and "sales and marketing"

      If you discount sales & marketing, they will start losing enterprise deals (like the US government). The lack of a free tier will impact consumer/prosumer uptake (free usage usually comes out of the sales & marketing budget).

      If you discount R&D, there will be no point to the business in 12 months or so. Other foundation models will eclipse them and some open source models will likely reach parity.

      Both of these costs are likely to increase rather than decrease over time.

      > ChatGPT is already a new default "pane of glass" for normal people.

      OpenAI should certainly hope this is not true, because then the only way to scale the business is to get all those "normal" people to spend a lot more.

delaminator 15 hours ago

We gave ChatGPT advertising on bus-stops here in the UK.

Two people in a cafe having a meet-up, they are both happy, one is holding a phone and they are both looking at it.

And it has a big ChatGPT logo in the top right corner of the advertisement - transparent just the black logo with ChatGPT written underneath.

That's it. No text or anything telling you what the product is or does. Just it will make you happy during conversations with friends somehow.

gmerc 16 hours ago

Stop R&D and the competition is at parity with 10x cheaper models in 3-6 months.

Stop training and your code model generates tech debt after 3-6 month

  • chermi 14 hours ago

    It's pretty well accepted now that for pre-training LLMs the curve is S not an exponential, right? Maybe it's all in RL post-training now, but my understanding(?) is that it's not nearly as expensive as pre-training. I don't think 3-6 months is the time to 10X improvement anymore (however that's measured), it seems closer to a year and growing assuming the plateau is real. I'd love to know if there are solid estimates on "doubling times" these days.

    With the marginal gains diminishing, do we really think they're (all of them) are going to continue spending that much more for each generation? Even the big guys with the money like google can't justify increasing spending forever given this. The models are good enough for a lot of useful tasks for a lot of people. With all due respect to the amazing science and engineering, OpenAI (and probably the rest) have arrived at their performance with at least half of the credit going to brute-force compute, hence the cost. I don't think they'll continue that in the face of diminishing returns. Someone will ramp down and get much closer to making money, focusing on maximizing token cost efficiency to serve and utility to users with a fixed model(s). GPT-5 with it's auto-routing between different performance models seems like a clear move in this direction. I bet their cost to serve the same performance as say gemini 2.5 is much lower.

    Naively, my view is that there's some threshold raw performance that's good enough for 80% of users, and we're near it. There's always going to be demand for bleeding edge, but money is in mass market. So if you hit that threshold, you ramp down training costs and focus on tooling + ease of use and token generation efficiency to match 80% of use cases. Those 80% of users will be happy with slowly increasing performance past the threshold, like iphone updates. Except they probably won't charge that much more since the competition is still there. But anyway, now they're spending way less on R&D and training, and the cost to serve tokens @ the same performance continues to drop.

    All of this is to say, I don't think they're in that dreadful of a position. I can't even remember why I chose you to reply to, I think the "10x cheaper models in 3-6 months" caught me. I'm not saying they can drop R&D/training to 0. You wouldn't want to miss out on the efficiency of distillation, or whatever the latest innovations I don't know about are. Oh and also, I am confident that whatever the real number N is for NX cheaper in 3-6 months, a large fraction of that will come from hardware gains that are common to all of the labs.

    • necovek 7 hours ago

      Someone brought up an interesting point: to get the latest data (news, scientific breakthroughs...) into the model, you need to constantly retrain it.

      • Ianjit an hour ago

        The incremental compute costs will scale with the incremental data added, therefore training costs will grow at a much slower rate compared to when training was GPU limited.

      • fennecbutt an hour ago

        Or, you know, use rag. Which is far better and more accurate than regurgitating compressed training knowledge.

    • Spooky23 13 hours ago

      Google has the best story imo. Gemini > Azure - it will accelerate GCP growth.

  • Spivak 10 hours ago

    Also R&D, for tax purposes, likely includes everyone at the company who touches code so there's probably a lot of operational cost being hidden in that number.

diggan 16 hours ago

> $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is?

Not sure where/how I read it, but remember coming across articles stating OpenAI has some agreements with schools, universities and even the US government. The cost of making those happen would probably go into "sales & marketing".

  • JCM9 16 hours ago

    Most folks that are not an engineer building is likely classified as “sales and marketing.” “Developer advocates” “solutions architects” and all that stuff included.

  • infecto 16 hours ago

    This will include the people cost of sales and marketing teams.

  • chermi 15 hours ago

    So probably just write-offs of tokens they give away?

hedayet 16 hours ago

> $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is?

enterprise sales are expensive. And selling to the US government is on a very different level.

rkharsan64 6 hours ago

I see multiple banner ads promoting ChatGPT on my way to work. (India)

lanthissa 15 hours ago

you see content about openai everywhere, they spent 2b on marketing, you're in the right places you just are used to seeing things labeled ads.

you remember everyone freaking out about gpt5 when it came out only for it to be a bust once people got their hands on it? thats what paid media looks like in the new world.

abaymado 16 hours ago

> $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is?

I used to follow OpenAI on Instagram, all their posts were reposts from paid influencers making videos on "How to X with ChatGPT." Most videos were redundant, but I guess there are still billions of people that the product has yet to reach.

  • gizajob 15 hours ago

    Seems like it’ll take billions more down the drain to serve them.

  • what 8 hours ago

    There’s a bunch of users here that are probably paid by them too.

    • rightbyte 3 hours ago

      I'd prefer the use of the Heroes 3 nomenclature on crowd sizes to be more precise. "Bunch" sounds too small. I would say a 'horde' i.e. 50 to 99.

lemonlearnings 9 hours ago

I have seen a tonnes of Chat GPT ads on Reddit. Usually with image generation of a dog in Japanese cartoon style.

  • fennecbutt an hour ago

    This seems to be a common ad template for reddit ads, it's not just oai I've seen loads of ads use the this is fine template.

  • necovek 8 hours ago

    The dog sitting in a house on fire proclaiming "this is fine" is an old meme, not an OpenAI generated image.

    Oh, not that dog? :)

xmprt 15 hours ago

Free users typically fall into sales and marketing. The idea is that if they cut off the entire free tier, they would have still made the same revenue off of paying customers by spending $X on inference and not counting the inference spend on free users.

eterm 16 hours ago

> ? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT

FWIW I got spammed non-stop with chatGPT adverts on reddit.

epolanski 12 hours ago

I've seen some OpenAI ads on Italian tv and they made no sense to me, they tried hard to be apple like, but realistically nobody knew what they were about.

  • joering2 12 hours ago

    Italian advertising is weird in general. Month ago leaving Venice we pulled over on a gas station and I started just going thru pages on some magazine. At some point I see advertising on what looks like old fashioned shoes - and owner of the company holding his son with sign "from generation to generation". Only thing - the ~3 year old boy is completely naked wearing only shoes with his little pee pee sticking out. It shocked me and unsure if it was just my American domestication or there was really something wrong with it. I took a picture and wanted to send it to my friends in USA to show them how Italian advertising looks like, before getting sweats that if I were caught with that picture in the US, I would get in some deep trouble. I quickly deleted it, just in case. Crazy story..

    • necovek 7 hours ago

      Not crazy, it's just a cultural thing.

      US (and maybe the whole of Anglosaxon world) is a bit mired in this let's consider everything the worst case scenario: no, having a photo of your friend's naked kiddo they shared being funny at the beach or in the garden in your messenger app is not child pornography. The fact that there are extremely few people who might see it as sexual should not influence the overall population as much as it does.

      For me, I wouldn't blink an eye to such an ad, but due to my exposure to US culture, I do feel uneasy about having photos like the above in my devices (to the point of also having a thought pass my mind when it's of my own kids mucking about).

      I resist it because I believe it's the wrong cultural standard to adhere to: nakedness is not by default sexual, and especially with small kids before they develop any significant sexual characteristics.

    • matwood 5 hours ago

      If that made you uncomfortable, you better avoid the beaches in Italy and the rest of Europe.

    • epolanski 12 hours ago

      Nudity in general is not weird in Europe, let alone children's.

Jallal 16 hours ago

I'm pretty sure I saw some ChatGPT ads on Duolingo. Also, never forget that the regular dude do not use ad blockers. The tech community often doesn't realize how polluted the Internet/Mobile apps are.

hu3 12 hours ago

OpenAI keeps spamming me with ads on instagram and reddit.

Pretty sure I'm not a cheap audience to target ads at, for multiple reasons.

wood_spirit 16 hours ago

Speculating but they pay to be integrated as the default ai integration in various places the same way google has paid to be the default search engine on things like the iPhone?

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actuallyalys 12 hours ago

I’ve seen some on electronic street-level signs in Atlanta when I visited. So there is some genuine advertising.

zurfer 16 hours ago

Inference etc should go in this bucket: "Operating losses reached US$7.8 billion"

That also includes their office and their lawyers etc , so hard to estimate without more info.

infecto 16 hours ago

Hard to know where it is in this breakdown but I would expect them to have the proper breakdowns. We know on the inference side it’s profitable but not to what scale.

patrickhogan1 11 hours ago

Sales people out in the field selling to enterprises + free credits to get people hooked.

Our_Benefactors 16 hours ago

> $2 billion on sales and marketing

Probably an accounting trick to account for non-paying-customers or the week of “free” cursor GPT-5 use.

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plaidfuji 41 minutes ago

I’m also curious about your last question. Cost of goods sold would not fall into R&D or sales as far as I know.

So curious, in fact, that I asked Gemini to reconstruct their income statement from the info in this article :)

There seems to be an assumption that the 20% payment to MS is the cost of compute for inference. I would bet that’s at a significant discount - but who knows how much…

Line Item | Amount (USD) | Calculation / Note

Revenue $4.3 Billion Given.

Cost of Revenue (COGS) ($0.86 Billion) Assumed to be the 20% of revenue paid to Microsoft ($4.3B * 0.20) for compute/cloud services to run inference.

Gross Profit $3.44 Billion Revenue - Cost of Revenue. This 80% gross margin is strong, typical of a software-like business.

Operating Expenses

Research & Development ($6.7 Billion) Given. This is the largest expense, focused on training new models.

Sales & Ads ($2.0 Billion) Given. Reflects an aggressive push for customer acquisition.

Stock-Based Compensation ($2.5 Billion) Given. A non-cash expense for employee equity.

General & Administrative ($0.04 Billion) Implied figure to balance the reported operating loss.

Total Operating Expenses ($11.24 Billion) Sum of all operating expenses.

Operating Loss ($7.8 Billion) Confirmed. Gross Profit - Total Operating Expenses.

Other (Non-Operating) Income / Expenses ($5.7 Billion) Calculated as Net Loss - Operating Loss. This is primarily the non-cash loss from the "remeasurement of convertible interest rights."

Net Loss ($13.5 Billion) Given. The final "bottom line" loss.