Comment by gnfargbl

Comment by gnfargbl 16 hours ago

17 replies

Something that isn't spoken about enough is that in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized due to reductions in electricity usage over time [1]. That link says 16% over, but the peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW [2], which I make more like a 30% reduction from the all-time peak.

Because of this, it feels like we should already have enough transmission capacity in a decent part of the network to cope with a re-organisation of where the sources and sinks are placed. Yes, we might need to do some work in the last mile, especially if V2G takes off, but things aren't nearly as bad as one might naively assume.

[1] https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto...

[2] https://www.neso.energy/news/britains-electricity-explained-...

jandrese 12 hours ago

It depends. In a neighboring county they have effectively saturated the grid and had to put a hold on datacenter permits. AI has been undoing a bunch of the efficiency savings we worked hard for in the past 20-30 years.

pjc50 16 hours ago

The trouble is the capacity is in the wrong place; the UK closed coal plants in (defunct) coalfields in the middle of the country, and built offshore wind farms which tend to be further north. There's plans for an offshore north-south connector to help with this.

zokier 12 hours ago

In some parts of my country the grid provider has needed to restrict new industrial connections because the grid is hitting its limits.

https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x...

  • gnfargbl 11 hours ago

    OK, but Finland has the lowest electricity prices in Europe and is pretty cold for most of the year. It makes sense that people want to put datacenters there.

oezi 14 hours ago

Electricity needs are expected to rise significantly as we convert heating and transportation to electric.

  • gnfargbl 13 hours ago

    Not as much as you might think: one of the links I gave suggests only an overall 10% increase if the entire country switches to EVs. I found another link suggesting a 25% average increase if we all switch to heat pumps -- still within what the grid is sized for already.

    • youngtaff 12 hours ago

      Heat Pumps will be the big driver but there’s a lot of spare electricity capacity over night in most European countries

JumpCrisscross 13 hours ago

> in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized

Your sources really only apply to Britain and other deïndustrialising countries. American and European energy demand is rising due to electrification and AI.

  • gnfargbl 11 hours ago

    For Europe at least, measured numbers are flat or slightly falling: https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity

    I accept that AI is likely to take us in the wrong direction for a while. (I don't think it will actually be that long, once people realise that more training isn't getting more results.)

    • ericd 10 hours ago

      In the US, iirc replacing combustion cars and heating with EVs and heat pumps are larger contributors - the inflation reduction act and various incentives have been pretty successful, and as a consequence, electricity demand has been growing much quicker recently than in the previous couple decades.

  • [removed] 11 hours ago
    [deleted]
  • swiftcoder 13 hours ago

    How much of Europe is still electrifying? Or I suppose you mean migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric?

jansan 12 hours ago

> peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW

It was actually 1000 times that much.

  • gnfargbl 11 hours ago

    Correct, thankyou: stupid error on my part. 45GW.