Show HN: I built a tool to find trading signals that aren't just random luck

9 points by OzanEnginsal 21 hours ago

Hi HN,

I'm a solo dev and for the last few months I've been building Hikaro, a tool to find statistically significant trading signals for [e.g., US equities, crypto, forex].

I built this to solve my own problem: I was tired of backtests that looked great on paper but failed in practice. Simple metrics like "win rate" can be misleading, so I wanted a way to quickly tell if a signal's performance was genuine or just noise.

Hikaro ingests daily market data and runs statistical analysis on various trading signals. The goal is to surface signals with strong properties, like:

Low p-value: Evidence that the performance is not a random fluke. High Sharpe Ratio: Better risk-adjusted returns. Healthy 'Core Performance': The average return after removing the single best outlier trade, for a more conservative view. Other key metrics like Profit Factor and Max Drawdown that you can filter by.

I'm looking for my first users and would love your feedback. I'm offering a 30-day free trial of the Pro plan (which includes Telegram alerts) with no credit card required.

I'll be here all day to answer any questions. I'm especially keen to hear feedback on the concept and the metrics.

Thanks, HN!

roberdam 10 hours ago

Congrats on the idea and launch!

Quick questions:

I can’t find the pricing for any of the plans (am I missing it?).

It would be great to have a GIF or video showing how it works without registering.

It would also be great to show some of your previous winning signals to demonstrate the potential (you could publish them with a delay of a week or more).

Reply View 1 reply

OzanEnginsal 8 hours ago

Thanks so much for the kind words and this excellent feedback!
Pricing: You were absolutely right! Based on this feedback, I've just pushed an update with a full pricing section. It highlights the free plan and the 50% discount for early beta users. On top of that, I'm running a reward program for the most engaged users who help with feedback.
GIF/Video Demo: That's a great idea and definitely on my to-do list. A video would make it much clearer. For now, the User Manual gives a detailed breakdown of all the features.
Signal Examples: I completely agree. I'm working on a way to feature these directly on the site. In the meantime, I post regular examples of recent signals on Twitter (@OEnginsal) and Reddit (u/ozanenginsal).
This is all super helpful and exactly the kind of feedback I was looking for. Thank you again!

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jqpabc123 17 hours ago

I'm looking for my first users

Why?

With market beating metrics, who needs users?

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OzanEnginsal 16 hours ago

Great question. Honestly, because I love building software. I do trade, but I get a huge amount of satisfaction from creating a tool that other people can use to do their own research more effectively.
Also, these are signals, not fully automated strategies. They still require a human to manage risk and execution. Why not build a business around a problem I'm passionate about solving?

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- jqpabc123 14 hours ago
  
  Why not build a business around a problem I'm passionate about solving?
  Because there is no shortage of unverified technical analysis tools out there?
  Those who can --- trade. Those who can't --- sell tools.
  Good luck. You'll be an upstart in a field that is already fairly saturated with well entrenched players.
  If you really have something of merit, my best advice would be to look at becoming a 3rd party add-on provider for one of these existing platforms like ninjatrader.
  https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/121014/...
  
  Reply View | 1 reply
  
  OzanEnginsal 12 hours ago
  
  You're right, it's a very crowded space and there's a lot of skepticism for good reason. My goal isn't to compete with the big TA platforms, but to focus specifically on the statistical validation of trading ideas, which I see as a missing piece.
  I appreciate the advice about platforms like NinjaTrader—that's a good thought. Thanks for the feedback.
  
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amradio1989 11 hours ago

Congratulations!! That’s a big achievement.

Maybe you know this, but trading signals are a dubious avenue to investment returns. They are, universally, all garbage.

Idk who your customer is, but this is useful for “traders” who sell e-courses and trade picks to the naive. I imagine they’d like it quite a lot. You could even run an affiliate program to get to their customers.

Now I wouldn’t recommend that personally. We have enough unscrupulous behavior going around. Instead I’d apply those statistical analysis capabilities to things that actually work.

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OzanEnginsal 11 hours ago

You've actually hit on the exact reason I built this. I share your skepticism completely – the vast majority of trading "signals" are just noise, most traders can't outperform buy-and-hold, and the space is full of unverified claims.
My goal with Hikaro isn't to add to that noise, but to provide a statistical filter against it. The whole point of the tool is to move beyond subjective analysis and ask a more rigorous question: "Could this signal's historical performance be explained by random luck?"
It's a tough problem, for sure, but I believe that applying more statistical discipline to the process is a valuable first step. I really appreciate you sharing your perspective.

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slig 15 hours ago

Congrats on shipping! Maybe you could show what the signals look like at the home page, and the potential returns from the latest signals.

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OzanEnginsal 15 hours ago

Thanks, that's a great suggestion! You're absolutely right, seeing a concrete example of a signal and its performance on the homepage would be much clearer.
It's at the top of my to-do list now. In the meantime, I have been posting regular updates with recent signals on my Twitter (https://twitter.com/OEnginsal) and Reddit (u/ozanenginsal).
Really appreciate the feedback!

Reply View | 2 replies
- slig 14 hours ago
  
  Another suggestion: if your target paying customer is looking more for day trading, maybe you could have a free telegram (and X) channel with free daily or weekly signals to let potential customers try your signals.
  
  Reply View | 1 reply
  
  OzanEnginsal 14 hours ago
  
  You're spot on about needing a way for users to see the value first. I should probably make my target audience clearer on the homepage—the signals are based on daily data, so they're geared towards swing traders and investors, rather than intraday traders. My main approach for this is the 30-day free trial which gives full access to all features. I also share a lot of the statistics and signal examples on X and Reddit, which is very similar to what you're suggesting. A dedicated Telegram channel is a really interesting idea for a lead-in, though. I'll definitely keep that in mind. Thanks!
  
  Reply View | 0 replies