Comment by cm2187

Comment by cm2187 14 hours ago

Though technically France always worked on that assumption. Or rather, that the US would support France against a soviet invasion up to a certain level, but wouldn't risk a nuclear war for France's pretty eyes. Hence the will to have no other finger than the French president's finger on its red button.

And to be honest that's the only way it can ever be. I don't understand France's talk about extending its nuclear deterence to the rest of Europe. Those european countries can no more rely on France than France can rely on the US in those extreme scenarios. Nuclear deterence is like the bee's sting. It will die if it uses it, but it's because you know it will use it that you tread carefully.

actionfromafar 11 hours ago

I think it's very simple. France hinted at placing its own nuclear bombers closer to the Russian border. That does not require that other European countries trust France. It's just France shifting its nuclear posture a bit more to the East.

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aspenmayer 6 hours ago

Does France have submarines with nuclear weapons? I’m not sure how much of a deterrent nuclear bombers are compared to ICBMs, but it’s better than not having them.

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- cm2187 5 hours ago
  
  My understanding is that jetfighters with nuclear weapons are meant to deliver an ultimate warning by nuking the invading army. ICBM are what comes next (unless the enemy went ICBM first).
  That being said this all assumed that Russia had a strong air-defence. The various strikes that Ukraine has been able to make on Russian territory seems to have challenged that idea. I don't know how confident Putin feels he could block such attack, so that adds to the dissuasion too. The thing with nukes is that it only takes one missile to go through.
  
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  aspenmayer 5 hours ago
  
  A nuclear first strike is the worst deterrent possible, though. It basically enables and ensures a nuclear retaliatory strike, which is how you rapidly reach midnight on the atomic clock, queueing up WW3.
  I don’t think France would ever strike first with nukes, even against Russia invading France itself. Conventional munitions and bombs are justifiable, but I can’t see France nuking any EU country that is being invaded by Russia or anyone else, even as a last resort. There’s nothing to gain militarily by doing so, and it would only give their enemies justification to escalate.
  I honestly don’t know much about French nuclear doctrine and policy, so I would be happy to be corrected or pointed in the right direction.
  
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