Comment by ascendantlogic

Comment by ascendantlogic 2 days ago

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Anecdotally I'm already seeing this on a small scale. People who vibe coded a prototype to 1 mil ARR are realizing that the velocity came at the cost of immense technical debt. The code has reached a point where it is essentially unmaintainable and the interest payments on that technical debt are too expensive. I think there's going to be a lot of money to be made over the next few years un-fucking these sort of things so these new companies can continue to scale.

_DeadFred_ 2 days ago

So basically the new version of the 1990's people's projects that grew to high ARR based on their random Visual Basic codebase? That's how software companies have been starting for 30 years.

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busssard 2 days ago

if i have 1mil ARR, i can hire some devs to remake my product from scratch. and use the Vibecoded Example as a design mockup.

If i manage to vibecode something alone that takes off, even without technical expertise, then you validated the AI usecase...

Before Claude i had to make a paper prototype or a figma, now i can make Slop that looks and somehow functions the way i want. i can make preliminary tests, and even get to some proof of concept. in some cases even 1million $ annual revenue...

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  • ascendantlogic 2 days ago

    Yes, this is exactly where AI shines: PoCs and validating ideas. The problems come when you're ready to scale. And the "I can hire some devs to remake my product from scratch" part is the exact money making scenario some of my consulting friends are starting to see take shape in the market.

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    • const_cast 2 days ago

      But people say this about technology in software engineering time and time again.

      VB? VBA macros in Excel? Delphi? Uhh... Wordpress? Python as a language?

      Well you see these are just for prototypes. These are just for making an MVP. They're not the real product.

      But they are the real product. I've almost never seen these been successfully used as just for prototyping or MVPs. It always becomes the real codebase and it's a hot fucking mess 99% of the time.

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      • disqard 2 days ago

        You're not wrong about that.

        What ends up happening is that humans get "woven" into the architecture/processes, so that people with pagers keep that mess going even though it really should not be running at that scale.

        "Throw one away" rarely happens.

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    • Workaccount2 2 days ago

      This is where the missmatch is, the future is not in scaled apps, the future is in everyone being able to make their own app.

      You don't have to feature pack if you are making a custom app for your custom use case, and LLMs are great with slim narrow purpose apps.

      I don't think LLMs will replace developers, but I am almost certain they will radically change how end users use computers, even if the tech plateaus right now.

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      • ascendantlogic 2 days ago

        > the future is in everyone being able to make their own app.

        Everyone can do their own plumbing and electrical work in their homes too. For some people it works out, for others it's still better to pay someone else to do it for them.

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  • occz 2 days ago

    I guess that depends on how you get that ARR-figure. If more than all of it goes to paying your AI bills, then you can't really afford that much engineering investment.

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  • chasd00 2 days ago

    > hire some devs

    you're making an assumption these devs you hire actually know what they're doing and not just a proxy back to an LLM.

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  • mrkeen 2 days ago

    > if i have 1mil ARR, i can hire some devs to remake my product from scratch

    This assumes a pool of available devs who haven't already drunk the Koolaid.

    To put it another way: the 2nd wave of devs will also vibe code. Or 'focus on the happy path'. Or the 'MVP', whatever it's called these days.

    From their point of view, it will be faster and cheaper to get v2 out sooner, and 'polish' it later.

    Does anyone in charge actually know what 'building it right' actually means? Is it in their vocabulary to say those words?

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  • jcgrillo 2 days ago

    You would only be able to hire me to do that job if you gave me every last dollar of that ARR. And I still might turn you down tbh..

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