Comment by potato3732842

Comment by potato3732842 5 days ago

9 replies

Very interesting, but this article is kind of a mess and all over the place.

I would expect a shipping lane to have more or less than baseline amounts of lightening regardless of soot on the basis of it being generally more churned up and therefore having slightly different potential than the rest of the ground (which just happens to be liquid water in this case).

It's not clear to me if the study is isolating the variable they're measuring properly.

Surely there's a "control" shipping lane somewhere that was cleaner to begin with or never cleaned up.

Additionally, it's well known that having a bunch of crap (including water) suspended in the air to bridge the gaps makes it easier for electricity to arc so it's not clear if and/or to what extent this the change a result of sulfer emissions or particulate generally.

It's also well known that particulate facilitates condensation (the article talks about this).

HocusLocus 16 hours ago

Yes, and sulfur isn't the only cloud nucleation trigger. Refineries of ship 'bunker fuel' used to seek contracts from disposal companies to burn their chemical waste at sea. And dirty fuel has lots of natural vanadium. Source: oil spill around my houseboat legal case in the 1980s, fuel company had to disclose breakdown of content.

ccgreg 19 hours ago

Hopefully you read all of the links in the article -- the purpose of thecoversation is to present information to the general public, with references to research that the author has been involved with.

lesuorac 5 days ago

> Surely there's a "control" shipping lane somewhere that was cleaner to begin with or never cleaned up.

Isn't the shipping lane the "treatment" group and everywhere else in the world the "control" group?

Like we administered x mg of sulfer to the patient and they saw y outcome while patients not receiving sufler saw z outcome. When we stopped administering sulfer all patients saw z outcome seems to be isolating sulfer as causing y.

  • jjk166 4 days ago

    > Like we administered x mg of sulfer to the patient and they saw y outcome while patients not receiving sufler saw z outcome. When we stopped administering sulfer all patients saw z outcome seems to be isolating sulfer as causing y.

    There is a reason we use placebos for control groups.

    • ethanwillis 19 hours ago

      Can you explain the reason?

      • Scarblac 17 hours ago

        Otherwise the sky may realize it's in the control group.

        • ethanwillis 7 hours ago

          I'm more interested in the reason the OP had in mind. I don't think it's required that you have a placebo control group, but the OP might have a reason in mind that's something I haven't considered.

atoav 17 hours ago

> It's not clear to me if the study is isolating the variable they're measuring properly.

> Surely there's a "control" shipping lane somewhere that was cleaner to begin with or never cleaned up.

As mentioned in the first paragraph of the article they are using the Global Lightning Detection Network, which is well, global. Then you just need a map of SO2 concentration and compare shipping lanes against non-shipping lanes. You don't need an explicit control group if your data includes the whole planet, since you can just compare shipping lanes against similar areas with less/no shipping. Since both lightning and SO2 also varies over time you can also correlate this way with enough data.