Comment by Aloisius

This makes it seem like there has been a large number of well-run controlled UBI trials that we can draw a conclusion from. There hasn't. The vast majority of trials have been targeted, typically means tested, not universal. Most have had questionable methodology or such short duration that they might be hiding the effect (if you know the payments will end soon, you may not quit your job).

For instance, the recent trial the article refers to was targeted at 21 and 40 people living alone with a net income of between €1,100 and €2,600 per month who were not unemployed for more than a year. It's not generalizable to the larger population.

Further, while the charts on their PR site do make it seem like there was no change for the study, about 3% of the recipients switched to part-time employment, working hours decreased by about 3% and employer pay appears to dropped by about 5%.

The Finnish study mentioned? Limited to the unemployed. The Canadian minicome experiment? Showed a drop in labor force participation. Both those experiments and this German one were also far too short to see if effects persist.

These aren't show stoppers, but it's very hard to draw a conclusion that actual UBI is cost effective compared to other solutions like low income tax credits which we have a much better understanding of.