Comment by jjcm

Comment by jjcm 2 days ago

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I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way.

FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main reason why I believe Waymo's approach here is simply better.

That's not to say vision wont work when the environment is good - FSD has gotten to the point where when things are optimal, it's a better driver than I am (ie it does better at merging into a lane of traffic better than I could, since it has 360 vision), but it simply isn't stable in the face of dynamic conditions.

philips 2 days ago

I have a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is an absolute dangerous joke. It nearly pulled me into a curb on its first attempt to enter a freeway.

Also, I think it keeps getting overlooked that freeways are designed from the ground up as a exclusive use of motorized vehicles. FSD performs OK there. But, taxi services are everywhere in cities around the clock in all sorts of weather. And I can't imagine trusting FSD for that use case.

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  • FeloniousHam 2 days ago

    Counterpoint: I had a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is absolutely a wonder and a delight (I now have a Tesla with HW4, and it's a noticeable improvement on my M3). It drives me through traffic on my commute everyday, in all kinds of weather, and is a better driver than me (say) 95% of the time.

    As I frequently mention in these "sanity response" posts, it's not perfect. Sun in the camera will sometimes cause it to bail. Maybe once a day, I take over because I'm not sure of its decisions. I share the skepticism that the same FSD I'm using can be fully autonomous, but with deep, current map data like Waymo has, maybe they can pull it off.

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    • philips 2 days ago

      Did you have the FSD they gave away for free for a few weeks last year? Because I felt like I was going crazy with neighbors saying it was great while I couldn't get it to stop doing dangerous stuff. Turns out they had HW4. I think the new stack or whatever is just not ok on hw3.

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      • FeloniousHam a day ago

        I got 3 months free when I bought the car new, canceled and reupped a few times, but have had the subscription since they lowered it to 99$. The HW3 definitely had more hitches (sudden breaking for roadside debris, weird adjustments turning into parking lots), but I got used to it. For the "less maintained" road (piles of brush/garbage/discards) on my commute, I kept my foot over the accelerator.

        There were definitely regressions with my Model 3, though the issues and improvements were at the margin.

        The HW4 I'm in now doesn't exhibit those issues and does Park to Park to and from, most days without any intervention.

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      • arkmm 2 days ago

        Did you try recalibrating your cameras? After a windshield replacement my HW3 FSD camera calibration was off and it was similarly terrible like you were describing (going way too close to curbs), but then I recalibrated on a straight highway stretch and since then it's been amazing. Over the past few thousand miles, I only take over for parking and getting out of parking lots at this point. (Also the occasional intervention if I want to take a different route that I think might be faster.)

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ilikeatari 2 days ago

I also use FSD HW4 daily, and it really just works well in regular conditions. It's unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it. Out of about 6k miles in the last 7 months, I probably drove 80 or so. I did not have many issues in the rain, but I do have issues in the snow. It's still somewhat unaware of how to drive well in snow. I usually disengage when it's snowy or very icy.

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  • JumpCrisscross 2 days ago

    > unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it

    Would note that most premium cars sold in America currently have advanced self-driving capabilities. I've personally been more impressed by Mercedes' kit than Tesla's, mostly because the former seems to have done a great job of defining where you can almost trust the system to just work.

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    • honeybadger1 2 days ago

      As someone who has tried both, FSD is still so much better in my experience. I use FSD in Miami and drive down to Key West often and it drives more than 99% of the trip and it just makes the drive so much more enjoyable. Even with all the recent road work going on, it handles it almost without error. I have the occasional take over due to things like it not wanting to get over soon enough into a lane for a turn or whatever and I just get impatient, move over myself and then re-engage it and relax again. I collect all of the car telemetry via API into graphana and it just amazes me all the sensors and telemetry I can look at and understand while also not driving!

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      • JumpCrisscross 2 days ago

        > it just makes the drive so much more enjoyable

        If I had to hazard a hypothesis, I think we'll see two forms of self-driving kit make it into the market. One that's aimed at being enjoyable, even at the expense of edge-case performance. Another that's aimed at being effective, even at the expense of breadth of use. Folks who fundamentally enjoy driving their cars will probably be appealed to by the former. Those who see them as mere tools, probably the latter.

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        • honeybadger1 2 days ago

          I agree with that. I use FSD for interstate driving primarily and also open road driving like the Keys where its just flat and open highway. Inner city for me I like to drive, because I am admittedly an aggressive driver, mainly because Miami calls for it(to get into lanes, to get out of a driveway or deck, etc if you're slow you get nowhere) but lately I have let it rip on my commute through Brickell and downtown and it has gotten more bold.

          I may be going out on a limb, but I think Tesla is popular with people who like to drive but also like technology. I work for one of the largest software companies in Miami and almost all the tech workers have a Tesla and when they talk about it, it's like talking about a video game system they are currently obsessed with.

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    • misiti3780 2 days ago

      wow, that is quite a hot take!

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      • JumpCrisscross 2 days ago

        Don't get me wrong, Tesla's FSD is way cooler. It feels more futuristic, takes more risks and has more-entertaining animations on the display. But it also drives like a 16-year old on PCP, which means I never quite trust it. Mercedes, on the other hand, built something that I can get into and intuitively trust. That's impressive in a different way from the roller-coaster approach, and I'd argue in a more useful way when it comes to cars, but it's really a distinction between what one values in the driving experience. (I'm pretty meh when it comes to driving. As evidenced by my owning a Subaru. All that said, Waymos are the only one I've taken a nap in and I believe that will be true for a long time.)

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        • misiti3780 2 days ago

          that is fair - you're the first person I've ever talk about it!

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coliveira 2 days ago

For someone living in Seattle, a product that requires good weather is close to useless...

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  • jjcm 2 days ago

    It does limit things. I will say though, from a psychological standpoint, it does do a good job of making me value FSD more! I'm always surprised how much I miss having FSD when I have to drive myself now. Very much a, "ugh I have to drive with my hands??" reaction.

    I do find it interesting that it's valuable enough for me that I'll plan my drives between the two cities around the weather, so I can have it on for the trip.

    Whatever company gets true self driving (ie no weather restrictions) to the market first is going to make an absolute killing. It's so valuable, Tesla's just isn't reliable yet.

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    • AlexandrB 2 days ago

      To me, it will only be valuable if the automaker accepts liability for accidents while using FSD. This not only provides some direct accountability for bugs but means I can actually relax while being driven. Anything short of that means that I'll have to keep as much focus on the road as usual since I'm still legally responsible for what happens.

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root_axis 2 days ago

I live in major metro in the south east. HW4 FSD in a model 3 and it is dangerous. Certainly, it's a lot better than a few years ago but still nowhere near something that could safely carry me home from the bar.

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insane_dreamer 2 days ago

> drive between Portland and Seattle

that's literally just I-5 all the way, with probably 5-10 minutes of street driving at either end. So does FSD really offer _that_ much more of a benefit over adaptive cruise control with lane keeping unless you're continuously overtaking?

I've tried enabling FSD on my Tesla twice (got two one-month trials), and really wanted to love it but was disappointed with the results when not on highways. My wife tried it once and won't touch it again.

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  • jjcm 21 hours ago

    > that's literally just the I-5 all the way

    You're not wrong, the 3hr drive only involves 14 turns. Where FSD helps:

    1. This is a very common trucking route, and often involves navigating 18 wheelers rather than just following, which the FSD is able to navigate. 2. Lots of major mergers, which again requires a bit more navigation. 3. Lane designation changes are fairly common - ie bus only lanes / carpool lanes

    It's not a major amount of things, but it's still a noticeable difference between just lane centering / adaptive cruise control.

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FireBeyond 2 days ago

Yeah, I don't expect that driving on wide laned, well-marked stretches of interstates like I-5 is problematic, especially in nice weather.

Let's try Pittsburgh in snow in December, and then see.

Mind you as recently as 12 months ago there were still videos of Teslas happily taking straight lines through roundabouts.

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misiti3780 2 days ago

I have the same experience as you. I live in a state with no snow though.

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