Comment by harmmonica

Comment by harmmonica 2 days ago

We're far from them doing it, but I have to imagine at some point Waymo, assuming they survive, will operate similar to Uber and Lyft in terms of pricing vs vehicle type. They have to realize how critical consistency-of-ride is so I'm not suggesting they'll have tons of options, but they will "have to" tier their offering lest someone else comes along (assuming the tech becomes more widespread) and offers a tier they don't offer. At the least I would think they'll end up with a base ride (like an Ioniq or even something extremely basic), an Ioniq or Ioniq+ type in the middle and then some kind of larger, more luxurious option. I mean this as it relates to rideshare because I'm sure Waymo has had plenty of internal conversations about the various verticals they can eventually operate (shipping, mass transit, etc.).

Animats 2 days ago

There's a larger Ioniq 9. But the real future is probably a 2-seater with no steering wheel. That handles most usage.

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crazygringo 2 days ago

That's actually a really interesting question. Because it's not necessarily about handling most usage, but also about handling peak usage. Is it worth the cost to keep everything 4-seater if that means they can all enter "carpool mode" whenever required at times of peak demand?
Because once they become ubiquitous, I suspect the vast majority will be operating in carpool mode at rush hour. Most people won't be willing to pay 4x to get a private vehicle if they're by themselves. Especially since the more vehicles there are, the more efficient carpool mode becomes for everyone.

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- sagarm 2 days ago
  
  My impression is that the shared ride options on Lyft/Uber only give a small discount and see little usage. Sharing rides is only more difficult and less attractive for Waymo users, who won't have a third party to buffer interactions.
  
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  crazygringo a day ago
  
  The price depends on a lot of factors. And there are many factors that can turn it into a large discount. And the larger the fleet is, the less difficult it becomes.
  Of course it's less attractive at the same price, but if it's cheaper enough it becomes more attractive for the average rider. And we can even imagine cities implementing single rider surcharges at rush hour to keep traffic running smoothly.
  Rush hour will be a bottleneck. So something has to be done, and it will involve trading off price and convenience. Whether it's carpool mode or self-driving buses or likely a combination of the two.
  
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harmmonica 2 days ago

That's really interesting because I hadn't actually thought about that in-depth before. I think Tesla's robotaxi prototype was even a 2-seater. My knee-jerk reaction to your comment was "no, 2 seater won't happen because the incremental cost of the additional seats and doors is immaterial to the overall cost of the car."
But then thinking more about it I thought of how great we (all the people who like Waymo) think it performs around bikes and pedestrians. So now I agree with you directionally but you might not be taking it far enough. Once (if?) autonomous vehicles rule the road, and they're known to be safe, the future will likely be the broad spectrum from autonomous buses (on the large side) to super-cheap, bike-like vehicles (on the small side) that cost way less than a car. For a single occupant, if you knew another vehicle wasn't going to kill you, wouldn't you take an e-bike (with a cover and basket on it?) for short trips if the fee was proportionate to the cost of the vehicle? I would. Assumes lidar shrinks I guess and that automated kickstands are a thing, but that seems tractable in the years to come.

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- sagarm 2 days ago
  
  Bike share programs already exist and are pretty popular in NYC. Self driving doesn't really seem necessary at that scale.
  
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  harmmonica 2 days ago
  
  Can you expand on that? Why is it that a vehicle being bigger vs smaller is the distinction? I’m one person but I care about some combo of money/time/distance/comfort. If I could get a cheaper ride from say Houston up to the park rather than having to drive it myself the value prop to me is the same—I don’t have to drive. Heck if the seat on the bike was comfortable enough like a laid-back sport seat in a car I might choose the bike at the same price point because it would be more fun (again this assumes I “know” it’s safe).
  
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  sagarm 3 hours ago
  
  Sounds like you might enjoy a recumbent bicycle.
  For a "bike" to balance you need a certain level of physical/mental engagement. How much value are you really getting from the self driving aspect, even if it were feasible, at that point?
  At some point smart-car esque self driving vehicles will likely be possible, but self-driving unenclosed two wheelers? Pointless IMO.
  
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kelnos 2 days ago

This makes lots of sense to me. A 2-seater is often a hard sell for a private owner (even one with no kids), but I'd bet the majority (or at least a plurality) of taxi/ride-share trips are for one or two people.

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tgsovlerkhgsel a day ago

Or a 4-seater with two rear facing seats. The design space gets bigger quickly once you no longer have to account for a driver and their field of vision, especially if the cars usually travel at city speeds where aerodynamics don't matter as much.

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Scoundreller 2 days ago

I figure the real future will be 2-3x 2-seater separate soundproof bubble domes per car.

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Muromec 2 days ago

It's not critical if you will still pay for shit service especially if competitors are like that too.

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