Comment by teeray 8 days ago
> the current administration… seems pretty ambivalent about collecting taxes that are on the books. I wonder if there will be an inconsistent definition of who is a software engineer, based on how friendly the company is with the administration, whether the company still has someone with a DEI title
So basically the same situation that we have with bullshit speed limits everywhere.
People greatly overestimate the amount of material cheating that happens, especially among large companies and the wealthy. I used to work for a Federal audit organization and almost all of the recoveries had a root cause in sloppy compliance and record-keeping practices rather than intentional malfeasance. It is broadly recognized as optimal that the recovered money should be several-fold the direct costs spent to recover it because this activity incurs a lot of non-obvious indirect costs. It is a variation on the principle that the optimum amount of fraud is non-zero.
Most of the blatant tax fraud is much lower down the economic ladder because below a certain threshold recovery doesn’t justify the cost and people know this. The amount you can get away with is far below the threshold where it would be worth the risk for wealthy parties. The best ROI for auditors in many of these cases is to make regular object lessons at random to discourage it rather than systematically prosecute it.
AFAIK, the increased spending at the IRS did not lead to concomitant offsetting recoveries. This is a predictable outcome, the amount of enforcement activity has been pretty finely tuned for decades to optimize ROI. Most of the recoveries come from changing focuses on compliance to areas that haven’t seen much enforcement activity in many years. Fighting entropy basically.
If you assume that most large recoveries are from sloppiness rather than systematic tax fraud, it changes what is going to be an effective strategy.
>AFAIK, the increased spending at the IRS did not lead to concomitant offsetting recoveries. This is a predictable outcome, the amount of enforcement activity has been pretty finely tuned for decades to optimize ROI. Most of the recoveries come from changing focuses on compliance to areas that haven’t seen much enforcement activity in many years. Fighting entropy basically.
AFAIK, all the data shows exactly the opposite.
https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/07/turns-out-irs...
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p5901.pdf
(There are many more studies from various outside organizations, as well as other non-partisan government bodies outside the IRS concluding similarly)
These are studies designed to show positive results, and are susceptible to the criticism the parent identified.
IRS enforcement has diminishing returns because the IRS starts with the small minority of people who are very obviously cheating on their taxes. Those people get audited and the IRS very easily recovers money from them. If you want to audit more people than that, you have to audit people who are less likely to be cheating. The more people you want to audit, the lower the collections rate gets.
But if you're averaging in the recovery rate from the people who are so obviously cheating, you can get quite far down the road past a marginal benefit before the average becomes a negative number.
Meanwhile, even that isn't considering the indirect costs. The IRS spends $1 and recovers $2, but audits are much cheaper than the IRS than they are for taxpayers. So the IRS spends $1 and the taxpayers (many of whom did nothing wrong, because we're talking about averages here) have to pay $5, in order for the IRS to recover $2. That's quite bad -- $6 is being spent in order to recover $2, but it's being reported as a $1 net gain.
And it's worse than that, because those $6 aren't just money, it's actual spending -- human labor hours that couldn't be allocated to something else -- so what you're losing isn't the cost of that labor, it's the value of that labor. Someone was being paid $1 to create $2 in value but now instead of doing that they have to spend that time on an audit, so the $6 in cost is actually $12 in lost value.
Not accounting for things like this makes it seem like we should be spending a lot more resources on something with diminishing returns and large hidden costs.
> the amount of enforcement activity has been pretty finely tuned for decades to optimize ROI
And then cut by 20% by the current adminstration [0].
I'd phrase the question of auditing lower income filers vs higher income filers differently -- do you think people with higher incomes should feel safer about cheating on their taxes?
Because average recoveries do scale with income [1]; unsurprisingly, it seems wealthy people commit tax fraud too [2].
While catching the low-hanging fruit (and therefore better ROI) is one goal, it needs to be balanced with ensuring there are similar levels of compliance (or penalties where it's lacking) in higher income payers.
[0] https://taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/cuts-spending-and-staff-d...
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/upshot/tax-audits-wealthy...
[2] https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-launches-new-effort-aimed-a... https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-tops-1-billion-in-past-due-... https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/yellen-touts-irs-enforc...
This comment (currently downvoted to hard-to-read grey-on-grey) is an excellent example why you should always enable "showdead" in your profile, use user CSS to make downvoted comments readable again (e.g., https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41514726), and browse https://news.ycombinator.com/active instead of the homepage once in a while.
If we had specifically defunded highway patrol that was net-revenue-positive, yes.
Republican defunding of the IRS is literally insane: reform by cutting enforcement.
- It rewards people who cheat on their taxes.
- It costs the government more money that it saves, because IRS investment is net revenue positive.
But then, the modern Republican party seems more concerned with being the party of 'law(s I agree with) and order (for people who aren't me).'