Comment by vehemenz
2040 feels far too soon for this thought experiment, at least in the U.S. ICEs will remain the primary vehicle for most families until charging networks are built out. 40-50 years is more realistic.
2040 feels far too soon for this thought experiment, at least in the U.S. ICEs will remain the primary vehicle for most families until charging networks are built out. 40-50 years is more realistic.
Depends where. EVs are already 23% of light vehicle sales in California. The US won’t transition equally.
And the median car is 13 years old and getting older. If the market share is only 23% today, then in 2040 the fleet will still be overwhelmingly ICE-powered, unless the government starts pulling levers that accelerate the transition, like quadrupling the fuel taxes.
EV adoption is incredibly uneven. It makes predictions really difficult.
The charging network could be built out in 5 years... if there was money in it.
(No, don't ask me how that would work. I don't know. I just think that private enterprise could do it quite quickly, if they saw a way to turn a profit doing so.)