Comment by sgc

Comment by sgc 18 hours ago

That an enormous sample size. Statistically a complete participation should be very close, so the burden of proof lies with those who claim it would be different. Regardless of whether Trump would have won or not, that is a clear indication of evenly split public sentiment. So we still get to justly reap the fruits of our collective choices. There is no exoneration by whimsically dreaming of improbable alternatives.

I don't think it is was that hard to vote. That is a straw man to avoid facing the hard truth of American apathy. Now next election, perhaps we can have a conversation on that point. Things a trending rather poorly right now.

jzb 8 hours ago

"I don't think it is that hard to vote"

Says a person commenting on HN that almost certainly isn't in a demographic that it has been made intentionally difficult to register, stay registered, and get time off an hourly job to stand in line for hours to vote.

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sgc 7 hours ago

I did not say 'is', I said 'was'. I have not seen studies or even many anecdotal stories indicating people think it was too hard for they themselves to vote. I have seen a lot of people saying that about other people, but as of 2024, attempts to disenfranchise voters had not been very well done. I also don't think having ID is a high bar, which is what a large amount of the noise has been about. Many, many democratic countries have this requirement [1]. Coupled with other things it can become a problem, but when anybody says voter id itself is a problem, I can't take them very seriously.
I however repeat, that was last year. Things could very well take a dramatic turn for the worse.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_identification_laws

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- jzb 2 hours ago
  
  Having an ID is a high bar when it can take a day or more at the DMV to get one. Right now in NC you either have to book an appointment - none are available for months - or show up like you’re queuing for concert tickets in the 80s at 6am before the office opens, get a number, come back at one, and hope they get to your number. (Source: daughter just did this procedure last week for a learner’s permit.)
  The GOP has also closed polling places in predominantly D areas, fought drop off boxes, etc. It is intentionally hard to vote for minorities and people in D areas.
  Yes, it’s going to get worse. But it isn’t good now.
  
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- cyberax 3 hours ago
  
  The problem is that all the additional requirements _always_ result in targeting Democratic voters. Always.
  For example, voting by mail is bad. Unless you are a senior (and thus more likely to vote Republican).
  And it doesn't take much to change the outcome of many elections. Just a 0.1% shift is often enough to flip the result.
  
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  sgc 3 hours ago
  
  So the fight needs to be to make things universal and fair, not to do away with everything. I agree there are many attempts to throw elections in the US, but I also think unreasonable resistance to measures that make a lot of sense on many levels would have far better results if it was spent making sure things were implemented correctly.
  I think a lot of people see all-out resistance as extremist and somewhat irrational, and so you are losing people's good will. I do see it that way, I am sympathetic as to what leads to it and don't let it count against those pushing for 'no new rules' even if I find it immature / poorly thought out - but at the same time I don't think most people think it through and are as understanding as I try to be.
  
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  cyberax 2 hours ago
  
  > So the fight needs to be to make things universal and fair, not to do away with everything.
  Like, automatic voter registration on license renewal? Nope. Denied if you're in a Republican state.
  > I think a lot of people see all-out resistance as extremist and somewhat irrational
  That's more restrictions _will_ be used to entrench Republicans even more. That's the simple reason for resistance.
  And yes, the media does a poor job explaining this.
  
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ellen364 16 hours ago

The electorate self-selected into voters and non-voters, it wasn't a random sample. Some chose to go to the polls and some chose to stay at home. Voter preferences don't say a lot about the preferences of non-voters, who've already shown they choose differently.

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sgc 7 hours ago

It shouldn't be that hard for you to show some evidence things would be different then. There is nothing indicating a stronger preference to vote has anything at all to do with which direction you lean. More and less does not equal right and left, so the burden of proof is on those who claim it is relevant. Yet polling indicates things would have gone pretty much just as they went.

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- ellen364 5 hours ago
  
  I don't know if voters and non-voters have the same political leanings. It isn't something I've ever looked into. My observation was merely that measures of statical confidence assume random samples. Extrapolating from a non-random sample can give odd results. But this isn't a research paper, so it doesn't much matter.
  
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mulmen 16 hours ago

There’s also one party that disproportionately targets specific voter demographics for suppression.

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