Comment by kqr

Comment by kqr 18 hours ago

This comment shows what is wrong with people's understanding of futures markets. Commodity futures are not for the supply of commodities. If you need a supply of commodities, cash contracts are your thing.

Futures, specifically, are useful for implicitly borrowing commodities to control inventory levels across time. An airline needs continuous access to jet fuel, so to be safe, they buy more jet fuel than they need in the cash market. But they don't want to pay for owning all this jet fuel, so they simultaneously sell it off in the futures market. Thus, they have created a loan of jet fuel, making sure they have spare fuel available when they need it without outright having to own it.

In order to have a loan, one needs a speculator willing to buy the credit risk. More speculators usually leads to more liquidity and more accurate deals on loans. There's nothing wrong with this at all.

See The Economic Function of Futures Markets by Williams (1986) if you are curious.

potato3732842 16 hours ago

Man, it's hilarious how you managed to go full circle around the point while missing it.

If the airline wants to ensure future supply at a given prices they can simply buy futures settled in actual product.

Hedging against future volatility by agreeing on a deal "now" is the entire point. Sure, sometimes you lose when there's a price drop but the other guy won. At the end of the day everyone benefits from smoothing out the volatility.

Buying and selling cash settled futures is just how small time buyers and sellers access the market since they can't take delivery of entire train loads of goods but still need to hedge.

Finance professionals trading them around to wring out an extra percent here and there it beside the point.

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seanhunter 15 hours ago

Hedging can’t be the only point, which is something we have known since the ancient Babylonians invented futures.
For every person who is trying to hedge future volatility, there has to be a person on the other side of that contract who is speculating on the possibility that the hedge guy is more frightened that they should be.
You need hedgers and speculators to have a two-way market, and in markets where you have predominantly hedgers they get completely fleeced by the few speculators brave/dumb enough to take the other side of their trades. This is because many markets are structurally unbalanced such that the people who need to hedge long (producers) and people who need to hedge short (consumers) operate on different timeframes etc. So if I’m a farmer growing some crop I might want to sell the 1yr future, but the guy trying to hedge the price for purchase (wholesale grocer or whatever) will be hedging the front future like 1m out. So someone has to carry the risk in the forward curve between 1m and 1 year or noone gets the hedge they need and the market doesn’t work.
Quite aside from that, there are all sorts of things which are cash-settled because you literally can’t do a physical settlement but people need to hedge (yes and speculate) anyway. Take an index future on an equity index. How are you going to physically settle a future on the SPX or (god forbid) the Russell? The liquidity consequences would be devastating to markets.

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- potato3732842 14 hours ago
  
  That's just not the case though.
  Buyers and sellers both want to hedge and they're both happy to give up some potential upside of getting one over on the other guy in exchange for stability.
  As you mentioned, timeframes and volumes often don't match up perfectly. So enter the speculators. They provide a lot of the liquidity. And they get paid for it. Like they make a 1yr bet and 12 1mo counter bets and do that enough that the wins and losses smooth out and they make a few pennies on the dollar.
  The futures market is basically a cyclone of financialization whipping around an eye of "actual business doing actual things" that needs to smooth out volatility (because you can't make a huge investment in a volatile market or you might get screwed into not being able to make payroll some quarter even though what you're up to is solvent any given year).
  You can apply the same model to financial goods (and you often want to because the solvency of all sorts of banking activities is predicated on market conditions the same way that industrial activity is dependent upon commodity prices and you can't have good stuff going tits up because of a bad quarter)
  But at the end of the day you need some core of participants who at the limit are willing to pay to limit/cap/reduce risk and volatility otherwise there's no market because the whole market is bets and counter bets about how that core activity will turn out.
  At the end of the day there is a legitimate business need to hedge against future uncertainty. Everything else in the futures market derives from this, though sometimes the paths are nonsensical.
  
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kqr 15 hours ago

No, this is a common misconception. If hedging was the point, futures markets would show more evidence of risk aversion than they do. Again, I recommend that Williams' book if you're curious!

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keepamovin 18 hours ago

It would be good if you could do this with cloud capacity.

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formercoder 16 hours ago

Pretty much the Reserved Instance Marketplace

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- keepamovin 14 hours ago
  
  Did not know about that! Can you recommend an approach, any cautionary tales? Do clouds beyond AWS have similar?
  
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kqr 17 hours ago

Doesn't make sense for e.g. compute because compute resources are infinitely perishable. Maybe could work for storage.

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- keepamovin 16 hours ago
  
  I guess I was thinking more like: you pay for a contract for bundle of resources now, to insure you against capacity overruns, and to sell it back at a future date. You can probably arbitrage the difference due to on-demand/reserved-capacity pricing ratio.
  But also i don't really understand what you mean by infinitely perishable? Can you explain more?
  
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  kqr 15 hours ago
  
  What I mean is that 5 bushels of wheat purchased now and stored properly can be used just the same now as three months from now. On the other hand, at a fundamental level, 5 minutes of compute purchased now are gone forever if not used.
  When a clould provider pretends to sell you five minutes of compute they are not really selling you five minutes of compute, but promising to split off five minutes of partial compute from other tenants to make room for you. It gets a little complicated...
  
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colechristensen 12 hours ago

>Commodity futures are not for the supply of commodities.

This is a silly statement. Commodity producers absolutely do use futures markets to sell their product.

>More speculators usually leads to more liquidity and more accurate deals on loans.

More speculators also leads to more speculation which can lead to anywhere up to a complete disconnect of the price from anything to do with supply or demand.

Case in point: onion futures are illegal in the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

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watwut 16 hours ago

There is no loan necessary in the plane example. Future is an agreement that you will buy/sell a thing for set price in a set date. No one needs to borrow anything for it to work. To manage the repository, the plane company will have contract to by x barrels at 1 of March for some price. That is it, that is what future is - contractual obligation to with a set date.

Also, while origin stories are nice, most future trades are pure speculations on price. There is no reason to pretend these original stories are how securities are actually used.

Your story may make a bit more sense with options where one party can choose to exercises their right to sell or buy. Then you can use it to manage actual amounts of commodity. But futures do not carry any such option with it. It is strict agreement with no choices. The plane company can use futures to guarantee certain fuel price in the future, so that some short term market swing wont make fuel too expensive for them.

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kqr 15 hours ago

> There is no loan necessary ...
That is also not what Williams says. He says a simultaneous long cash--short future position is practically the same as a loan of the corresponding commodity. (With the lending side being short cash--long future.) This activity accounts for many of the patterns we see in futures markets.

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- watwut 11 hours ago
  
  That position has zero to do with managing fuel inventory. He was trying to argue this is supposed to help managing inventory in practical world.
  These patterns are about speculation, not about managing inventories.
  
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seanhunter 15 hours ago

A futures trade always involves variation margin, and if you read a margin agreement you’ll see it is a credit agreement. That’s so people don’t just run away from trades which are underwater and screw the other side over.

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- watwut 11 hours ago
  
  That is something you have to do when you do speculative trades. That has zero to do with managing inventory.
  You are not required to take loan to buy futures. You can do so, because then you can bet more then you have. But you dont have to.
  
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