Comment by somebodythere
Comment by somebodythere 9 hours ago
Did you see the supplemental material that explains how they arrived at their timelines/capabilities forecasts? https://ai-2027.com/research
Comment by somebodythere 9 hours ago
Did you see the supplemental material that explains how they arrived at their timelines/capabilities forecasts? https://ai-2027.com/research
It's not at all clear that performance rises with compute in a linear way, which is what they seem to be predicting. GPT-4.5 isn't really that much smarter than 2023's GPT-4, nor is it at all smarter than DeepSeek.
There might be (strongly) diminishing returns past a certain point.
Most of the growth in AI capabilities has to do with improving the interface and giving them more flexibility. For e.g., uploading PDFs. Further: OpenAI's "deep research" which can browse the web for an hour and summarize publicly-available papers and studies for you. If you ask questions about those studies, though, it's hardly smarter than GPT-4. And it makes a lot of mistakes. It's like a goofy but earnest and hard-working intern.