Comment by MrScruff

I would assume this comes from having faith in the overall exponential trend rather than getting that much into the weeds of how this will come about. I can sort of see why you might think that way - everyone was talking about hitting a wall with brute force scaling and then inference time scaling comes along to keep things progressing. I wouldn't be quite as confident personally and as have many have said before, a sigmoid looks like an exponential in it's initial phase.