Comment by pydry a day ago
>History says that actually when this happens, an entire generation is yeeted on to the streets
History hasnt had to contend with a birth rate of 0.7-1.6.
It's kind of interesting that the elite capitalist media (economist, bloomberg, forbes, etc) is projecting a future crisis of both not enough workers and not enough jobs simultaneously.
I think it’s more of a “be fruitful and multiply” thing than an actual existential threat thing. You can see many of loudest people talking about it either have religious undertones or want more peasants to work the factories.
Demographic shift will certainly upset the status quo, but we will figure out how to deal with it.
> I don't really get the American preoccupation with birth rates.
Japan is currently in the finding out phase of this problem.
there's 70% less wild animals than there were 30 years ago
The welfare state is predicated on a pyramid-shaped population.
Also: people deride infinite growth, but growth is what is responsible for lifting large portions of the population out of poverty. If global markets were repriced tomorrow to expect no future growth, economies would collapse.
There may be a way to accept low or no growth without economic collapse, but if there is no one has figured it out yet. That's nothing to be cavalier about.
The welfare state isnt predicated on a pyramid shape but the continued growth of the stock market and endless GDP growth certainly is.
>infinite growth, but growth is what is responsible for lifting large portions of the population out of poverty
It's overstated. The preconditions for GDP growth - namely lack of war and corruption are probably more responsible than the growth itself.
We are not overpopulated.
I hate the type of people that hammer the idea that society needs to double or triple the birthrate (Elon Musk), but as it currently stands, countries like South Korea, Japan, USA, China, and Germany risk extinction or economic collapse in 4-5 generations if the birth rate doesn't rise or the way we guarantee welfare doesn't change.
We are most certainly not "overpopulated" in any way. Usage per person is what the issue is.
And no society, ever, has had a good standard of living with a shrinking population. You are advocating for all young people to toil their entire lives taking care of an ever-aging population.
It's the only way to increase profits under capitalism in the long term once you've optimized the technology.
> History hasnt had to contend with a birth rate of 0.7-1.6.
I think thats just not true: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peasants%27_Revolt
A large number of revolutions/rebellions are caused by mass unemployment or famine.
I don't really get the American preoccupation with birth rates. We're already way overpopulated for our planet and this is showing in environmental issues, housing cost, overcrowded cities etc.
It's totally a great thing if we start plateauing our population and even reduce it a bit. And no we're not going extinct. It'll just cause some temporary issues like an ageing population that has to be cared for but those issues are much more readily fixable than environmental destruction.