Comment by MajimasEyepatch
Comment by MajimasEyepatch 15 days ago
"If p then q" does not imply "If q then p."
Besides, there's a ton of easy ways to beat 50/50 odds without explicitly asking who they voted for. You can ask whether they graduated from college, and that will get you to something like 55/45 or 60/40. If they're white and they did not graduate from college, or if they're not white and they did graduate from college, your odds of guessing right are something like 2:1.
Studies have also found (somewhat weak) correlations between some of the Big Five personality traits and political identification: people who score highly on conscientiousness are more likely to be right-leaning, while people who score highly on openness to experience are more likely to be left-leaning.
> "If p then q" does not imply "If q then p."
My original comment is challenging whether "p then q" is valid in the first place by asking if the inverse would be true as a thought experiment. (Neither is true IMO)
Just because someone has certain values doesn't mean they vote a certain way.
Just because they vote a certain way doesn't mean they have certain values.
"p" (who you voted for) and "q" (your values) are largely independent for a large percentage of voters.