Comment by cjbgkagh

Comment by cjbgkagh 8 hours ago

I presume the US market is the dominant target market for ads / influencing, a quick google search suggests it is 75% of the global spend. So the other issue is not just losing US influencers but all influencers will take a haircut. I don't know how much of popular content is paid for by such revenue but taking a 75% haircut could put a real damper on content producers - especially those who make it a full time job. I don't know if that'll make it better with an increase in proportion of more organic content. I personally don't use TikTok - I waste enough time on HN.

There is an additional separate issue that influencer is a coveted 'career' for many children (~30%), so not only would it wipe out many jobs it'll kill their dreams. I guess like cancelling the space program at a time when kids really wanted to be astronauts.

I think there is a lot wrong with society and TikTok is part of it - but that's a much longer discussion for some other time.

bjourne 5 hours ago

If so, good riddance. The good point of TikTok is that the videos appear genuine and wholesome. Not the hyper-optimized for monetization crap YouTube Shorts show you. I much prefer the videos with kids goofing around on icy streets over the American narrator telling me some bs about some great baseball player.

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handfuloflight 8 hours ago

> it'll kill their dreams.

They can dream new dreams. I didn't become an astronaut—and realized I didn't actually want to become one, either.

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cjbgkagh 7 hours ago

Sometimes dreams are all they have - especially if they're young.
I think we have to understand the reality that the economy today is not what it once was, not even close. I think a lot of people are looking to the influence trade since they see the corporate / political / economic future as failing them and they want to carve out something on their own while the getting is good and while they still can. Sure some just want to be famous but others appear to have a very realistic view of their prospects both as an influencer and elsewhere.

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- handfuloflight 7 hours ago
  
  But how viable is it? There's 47 active astronauts and millions of children have dreamt of becoming one.
  
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  cjbgkagh 7 hours ago
  
  Well the Astronaut dream clearly wasn’t viable, influencer isn’t viable for 30% of the population but it could be viable for a much bigger proportion.
  
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  TheOtherHobbes 6 hours ago
  
  A lot of creative people were doing very well on TikTok. It made the careers of a huge number of indie writers.
  When I say "made" I mean "Earning six or even seven figures."
  Crafts and art services were also doing well. And certain influencers, obviously.
  It pretty much took over from Insta, which Meta somehow managed to shoot in the head with some of their algo changes.
  So - politics aside - that community is pretty unhappy about this.
  Dealing with this is going to be interesting insight into Trump's leanings.
  
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logicchains 8 hours ago

Hopefully the US tech industry is not so schlerotic that they're unable to clone it and offer a competitive alternative. Given TikTok has demonstrated there's a huge amount of money to be made in that space. Although given how awful Google Shorts and Reels' recommendation algorithms are in comparison, maybe there really will be no replacement.

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HankB99 5 hours ago

This was covered in a recent podcast. Apparently TikTok classifies videos on many more factors than e.g. Youtube and other US companies. China can do this because they have a cheap pool of many users who can perform this activity.
The podcaster felt that with AI capabilities getting better day by day (maybe - that's another discussion) that this multi factor classification could be automated. It seems not to have been done yet AFAIK.

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cjbgkagh 7 hours ago

You'd think with all the H1Bs the US is importing some of those could bring in some recommendation engine expertise.
The truth is that the recommendation engine is power and people drawn to power in the US were too quick to abuse it driving out the old hands - and once institutional knowledge is lost it's hard to get back.

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