Comment by jerf

"Could well be" is just a "could well be". It is not actually an argument, because there is an infinite range of "could well be". It "could well be" that we exist because the Great Simulator simply put us here, but you can only distinguish between outcomes based on actual observations.

If you want to invoke "well, things just happen because there's so many rolls of the metaphorical dice", your logical number of rolls is determined by the observable universe. When you step into hypotheticals beyond that, you must step into all of them all at once, not just pick one, smoke some hash and goggle at the one possibility you picked out. That's the mistake people make. And there's so many "well, it could be..." that in effect they cancel each other out and you can't do any logic on them.