Comment by sandworm101

From the recent events in California I have seen many photos of burnt houses with unburnt trees around. I think those houses were especially flammable more than some vegetation around it seems. After the fire nothing remained but the chimneys. I have never seen any house burn like that in Europe.

I live along the Mediterranean sea in France, many wood fires every summer, with wind above 100km/h; never seen so many houses burn like in California even when most of our houses are concrete but with wooden framework.

I'm pretty sure that if houses were built like here (concrete / concrete blocks with terracota tiles on wooden framwork) at lot less would have burnt. Maybe those near the wooded slopes but not in the middle of a neighborhood block.

The reality is the fires didn't make it far into the city grid sections of LA proper. This is because these areas have less flammable material, and are more defensible.

> Despite these things the area still burned.

I suspect the rules for making a defensible house were wrong. For example, I read an article recently that posited that most of the fire was spread by burning embers on the wind, and not by intense heat from nearby flames.

The idea is to look at where embers accumulate and eliminate or fireproof those areas. For example, a low masonry wall a few feet from the house can stop a lot of heavier burning embers from piling up against the house. If you've got a swimming pool, add a pump to it that feeds sprinklers in the yard and on the rooftop.

There are a lot of homes that did not burn - look at them and figure out why they didn't burn.

For a related example, every airplane crash is looked at, and we always discover overlooked vulnerabilities. The tsunami that devastated Japan a few years ago also provided a lot of information about what worked and didn't work.

We're a long way from needing to give up. There's a lot of low hanging fruit.

>This was a black swan event that will require a thoughtful response.

Taleb would have a field day with this one. Broadly, I think a big part of the argument is driven by the assumption that the area will be rebuilt, despite being a known fire risk.

Those protections are all about keeping a structure from catching fire. That is different than designing a structure not to burn. A wooden house surrounded by fire protection is OK under current rules. But it is still wood and will, eventually, burn when faced by a wild fire on all sides. A house built out of rock/brick/concrete/sand will not. We need to go beyond flamability and start reducing the actual number of calories availible to be burned.

Partially because that story about Japan is incorrect.

In reality, it is Japanese condos that get gutted periodically or when sold, and it's driven by their real estate tax code.

Japan takes enormous effort to prevent and mitigate natural disasters.

There may have been some truth to it 200 years ago, with the idea that wood was the only economical way to build a house that could last.

Legal Eagle claims that embers can travel up to 2 miles:

https://youtu.be/5h1H36rdprs?t=1m51s

That would easily jump a 10' fire break.

That would only account for the small amount of homes right on the beach itself - the majority of Malibu is in the hills above

I would prefer no bailouts.

If insurance wants firebreaks for insurance, that is their choice.

If the city wants buy RE for access, that is between tax payers and the land owners. Cash talks

> the county acquiring and maintaining beach paths every few houses. Prescribed 10' wide fire breaks

Ooh, and make a bailout conditional on homeowners (or counties) agreeing to eminent domain.

That would not have solved the problem in this fire since wind speed was so high. The videos showed embers traveling far and fast. Having a 10 foot fire break would not have prevented the spread. One thing to look into is how the fire started and if the electrical equipment can be made safer, like being underground in some places.

The break would need a low masonry wall to stop embers from being pushed along the ground.