Comment by mrandish

Comment by mrandish 3 months ago

30 replies

While the video post does mention "Right in front of us", and it may have appeared that way to the pilots, it wasn't. Gauging relative distance and altitude between aircraft in flight can be notoriously deceptive even to experts, especially in the case of intensely bright, massive, unfamiliar objects at very high speed and great distance.

The RUD was in orbit over 146 kilometers up and >13,000 mph. I'm sure using the FlightAware tracking data someone will work out the actual distance and altitude delta between that plane and the Starship 7 orbital debris. I suspect it was many dozens of miles away and probably still nearly orbital in altitude (~100km).

Spectacular light show though...

aredox 3 months ago

Stupid comment. Several flights had to be diverted because of the break-up, and anyone in flight at that time would be rightly concerned about barely-visible high-speed shrapnel showering a much larger area than where the visible debris are - especially when you are responsible for keeping your hundreds of passengers safe in a very unexpected situation with no rehearsed procedure to follow.

  • stouset 3 months ago

    Nobody is saying it wasn’t prudent to divert.

    It would have been impossible for the pilot to know if that debris was shortly in front of them and at co-altitude or extremely far in front of them and at a significantly higher altitude.

    In this case it was almost certainly the latter. But the uncertainty alone was enough to warrant diverting.

    > Stupid comment.

    Aim higher on HN.

  • javawizard 3 months ago

    Ok, this:

    > Stupid comment

    got me. There's literally an HN rule about this: [0]

    > When disagreeing, please reply to the argument instead of calling names. "That is idiotic; 1 + 1 is 2, not 3" can be shortened to "1 + 1 is 2, not 3."

    I feel like the world would be a better place if people would tone down the ad-hominem in their day-to-day discourse just a little bit.

    [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

    • yellowapple 3 months ago

      > I feel like the world would be a better place if people would tone down the ad-hominem in their day-to-day discourse just a little bit.

          PRAGMA sarcasm = ON;
      
      No, fuck you, I'm going to call you names and shit all over you over a mild disagreement!

          PRAGMA sarcasm = OFF;
      
      But yes, one of the refreshing things about HN is that even when conversations get heated, the participants tend to at least keep to the topic and respect one another / assume good faith. There will of course always be slip-ups on that (I'd be lying if I said I wasn't guilty of that on occasion), but they've managed to be pretty rare (and/or quickly caught by the admins) even as HN has grown in popularity.
kryptn 3 months ago

It's in front of them enough.

  • mrandish 3 months ago

    Sure. In a similar way as when the moon is low on the horizon and I stand in my back yard facing it. There's the moon. It's right in front of me... :-)

    • kryptn 3 months ago

      in a way that if they kept their heading there was a higher than acceptable risk of impact and they had to divert, yes.

      • mrandish 3 months ago

        As I said, the debris was likely closer to around ~100km in altitude. Commercial airliners fly around ~10km in altitude. Appearing to be at a similar altitude as the plane and "in front" of it was an optical illusion because the debris was intensely bright, very far away, very high and moving several times faster than a bullet. While we don't have exact data yet, I believe it is highly likely there was zero chance of that plane ever hitting that debris given their relative positions. It couldn't even if the pilots weren't mistaken about how close the debris was and they had intentionally tried to hit it. The debris was too far, too high and moving at hypersonic speeds (hence the metal being white hot from atmospheric friction).

        Starship's flight paths are carefully calculated by SpaceX and the FAA to achieve this exact outcome. In the event of a RUD near orbit, little to no debris will survive reentry. Any that does survive won't reach the surface (or aircraft in flight) until it is far out into the Atlantic Ocean away from land, people, flight paths and shipping lanes. For Starship launches the FAA temporarily closes a large amount of space in the Gulf of Mexico to air and ship traffic because that's where Starship is low and slow enough for debris to be a threat to aircraft. These planes were flying in the Caribbean, where there was no FAA NOTAM closing their airspace because by the time Starship is over the Caribbean, it's in orbit. If there's a RUD over the Caribbean it's already too high and going too fast for debris to be a threat to aircraft or people anywhere near the Carribean. The only "threat" in the Caribbean today was from anyone being distracted by the pretty light show in orbit far above them (that looked deceptively close from some angles).

      • InDubioProRubio 3 months ago

        The ISS is in the front of every plane and behind it every 90 minutes.

  • [removed] 3 months ago
    [deleted]
muteh 3 months ago

To be clear, you’re claiming that this was in fact behind them?

  • fastball 3 months ago

    No, I think he is claiming that if they kept flying straight they would not collide with any debris.