I have lost literally hundreds of thousands of $ trying to short obvious frauds and scams.
I have made all that back and more by instead going long things that are cheap + growing.
Being a bear pays off 1% of the time, and the act of trying to time it actually changes the window so just be an optimist and get rich.
Usually big established companies that've been unfairly beaten down and financials don't have any red flags. I look at social chat/analyst chat also but mostly only to see if/how many people/bots are talking not really to see what they are saying.
For example, I hold oversized bags of Boeing, Pfizer, and Google right now (these are new-ish positions ~3-4m in)
If I'm wrong, I try to get out asap. If I'm right, I try to never sell.
Very true. If you have the fundamentals right, but the timing wrong, you're still "wrong", because you're broke.