Comment by mandevil

Comment by mandevil 2 days ago

1 reply

As to the uncertainty and mysteries, you are 100% correct. One of the big failure modes for engineers in dealing with human health is the assumption that things are as simple and logical as the stuff we build, when it's simply not at all like that. There are (1) big arguments over basic things like "why do SSRI's work?" Outside of LLM's I can't think of a thing in software where we are still arguing about why things work in production. We never say "Why does Postgres work?" in the same way. (2)

And yes, this is true for many other areas of discussion at HN. It's just that it is most obvious to me in the area that my wife specializes in, because I pick up enough via osmosis from her to know when other people don't even have my limited level of understanding.

1: Or at least were 15 years ago when my wife told me about it- the argument might have been largely concluded and she just never updated me since I don't keep up with the medical literature the way she does.

2: Two decades ago there was a huge push for the "human genome project" under the basis that this would be "reading the blueprints for human life" and that would give us all of these medical breakthroughs. Basically none of those breakthroughs happened because we've spent the past 20 years learning all of the different ways that it is NOT a blueprint and that cells do things very differently from human engineers.

vladms a day ago

Regarding the human genome project specifically it was research and no matter what was claimed (give us all of these medical breakthroughs) we (as the public) should understand there is no guarantee. Similarly to how most tech startups propose plans that lead to huge scales and ROI, but nobody is amazed when 3-4 years later they have a modest revenue (the lucky ones).

The benefits for understanding more about genomes are growing (ex: list of adverse effects based on genotype https://go.drugbank.com/pharmaco/genomics) but the field is/(was) so chaotic (just one example: there was not one standard about how to count: https://tidyomics.com/blog/2018/12/09/2018-12-09-the-devil-0...) and so lacking data that it will take many years to reap the benefits (ex: one of the largest study UK Bio bank gave access to researchers only in 2017 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Biobank)