Comment by throw0101a
Comment by throw0101a 2 days ago
> 'How Asia Works' is not exactly economic orthodoxy, to put it lightly.
And yet it describes the historical record of several countries (in the case of Japan, how they did it twice: post-Meiji Restoration and post-WW2).
It goes over countries deemed 'successful' (Japan, Korea, etc), and others (Philippines).
What (particular?) "economic orthodoxy" would you suggest countries follow? What are countries (if any) have followed them, and what are the results? Are there book(s) that you would recommend on how to implement this/these orthodoxies, with case studies or historical examples of implementations?
'How Asia works' describes the historical record of some examples, yes.
There are some correlations between various factors and 'success'. Alas, it's hard to tease out which of the correlations, if any, are causal factors, and which are just coincidences, or worse. [0]
The book guesses at some of these causal factors, and makes policy recommendations.
I am mostly not really convinced by the full list of causal factors the book presents. On the one hand, the book observes protectionism and argues that it's a causal factor in promoting prosperity. That's just the old and tired 'Infant Industry Argument', so we should require quite some evidence to take it serious. On the other hand, the book ignores the possible impact of having lots of ethnically Chinese people in your country. (I don't know for sure whether that's a causal factor, but it sure looks noteworthy and deserves at least as much consideration and discussion any of the other factors.)
I also think the book is too quick to dismiss Hong Kong and especially Singapore. Singapore did not start out as a financial centre, and especially early on manufacturing was much more important here.
> What (particular?) "economic orthodoxy" would you suggest countries follow?
Much of what the successful countries examined in the book have been doing is worth following.
In any case, if you want an orthodox policy recommendation: the Washington Consensus was pretty decent. Lots of examples there.
Well, to be precise: Washington Consensus with the crucial addition that your central bank (if you have one) should be doing something like nominal GDP level targeting.
What that means is that the total nominal spending in your economy needs to be on a stable path. Don't let it grow too much, or you get inflation and overheat the economy. Don't let it collapse, or you get a recession.
See Scott Sumner's or George Selgin's writing for why that's really important and how that can work. (And why it's more sensible than targeting inflation.)
As a cautionary tale, look at Argentina. They were doing fairly well during their neoliberal / Washington consensus phase, but their currency arrangements led to a collapse of aggregate nominal spending in the economy. Alas, the subsequent recession was blamed on neoliberalism.
For examples with stable total spending, have a look at Israel or Australia. (At least until a few years ago, I haven't checked recently.) Both countries' nominal stability let them avoid recessions. Australia is especially noteworthy, because as a resource exporter you'd expect their economic fortunes to be as volatile as commodity prices. See https://marketmonetarist.com/2012/11/19/the-export-price-nor... for an investigation.
https://www.amazon.com/Just-Get-Out-Way-Government/dp/193086... is an alternative view at development economics. The title is a bit provocative, (even the author wasn't really happy with it, when I had a chat with him about it). The main thesis of the book is that honest and competent civil servants are the most rare and precious resource a country has, especially a poor one, so policies should economies on their labour.
So eg you should privatise a state-owned company by auctioning it off in one piece to the highest cash-bidder open to all comers from anywhere, no questions asked. Instead of having your civil servants set up a complex system or worse trying to evaluate proposed business plans. Complexity breeds corruption in the worst case, and in the best case still takes up civil servants' limited time.
See also https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GermanEconomicMiracle.ht... for some recommendations.
[0] When I say 'worse', I have in mind an example like: empirically we can observe a strong correlation between personal wealth and owning a fancy car. Alas, that doesn't mean getting yourself a fancy car will make you rich. Just the opposite, in fact.