Comment by eru
And that's not necessarily a good thing.
All those subsidies had to come out of some tax payers pocket, and they could have spent it on something more worthwhile (to them!).
And that's not necessarily a good thing.
All those subsidies had to come out of some tax payers pocket, and they could have spent it on something more worthwhile (to them!).
I know, imagining things is hard. But that's not much evidence either way.
Yes, there might be some government programs that look like a good deal in retrospect. Just like some lottery tickets are winners.
The heavy press program even turned a profit, if I remember right. Though private enterprise is usually pretty good at funding these kinds of projects, even with long lead times. (See eg how Amazon or Tesla or even Microsoft took ages to return capital to investors, but still had enthusiastic shareholders.)
I don't know specifically about packet switching, but you hear similar arguments about the invention of the computer.
In our reality, programmable electronic computers owe a lot to government and specifically military funding. But as a thought exercise, perhaps you can imagine an alternative history without WW2: IBM already made computing devices for business long before the war, and it's relatively easy to see how they would have eventually come up with a programmable electronic computer.
Compare also Konrad Zuse's work in Germany:
> After graduation, Zuse worked for the Ford Motor Company, using his artistic skills in the design of advertisements.[14] He started work as a design engineer at the Henschel aircraft factory in Schönefeld near Berlin. This required the performance of many routine calculations by hand, leading him to theorize and plan a way of doing them by machine.[21]
> Beginning in 1935, he experimented in the construction of computers in his parents' flat on Wrangelstraße 38, moving with them into their new flat on Methfesselstraße 10, the street leading up the Kreuzberg, Berlin.[22]: 418 Working in his parents' apartment in 1936, he produced his first attempt, the Z1, a floating-point binary mechanical calculator with limited programmability, reading instructions from a perforated 35 mm film.[14] Zuse Z1 replica in the German Museum of Technology in Berlin
> In 1937, Zuse submitted two patents that anticipated a von Neumann architecture. In 1938, he finished the Z1 which contained some 30,000 metal parts and never worked well due to insufficient mechanical precision. On 30 January 1944, the Z1 and its original blueprints were destroyed with his parents' flat and many neighbouring buildings by a British air raid in World War II.[22]: 426
> Zuse completed his work entirely independently of other leading computer scientists and mathematicians of his day. Between 1936 and 1945, he was in near-total intellectual isolation.[23]
In our real history, the US and UK armed forces came first, but a world with more resources in the hands of the private sector (and also with less war) would have surely accelerated some of these private computing experiments (IBM or Konrad Zuse or someone else), and we would have seen computers at roughly the same time as in ours, or perhaps even sooner.
Similarly, the real history of packet switching is heavily intertwined with some US government projects. But even just browsing Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packet_switching tells you about other attempts and projects going on around the same time. So the government's investment probably did not speed up things by that much, even before you consider that in our counter-factual the private sector would have more resources.
> I know, imagining things is hard. But that's not much evidence either way.
Imagining is easy; "hard to imagine" is an English idiom for "that seems implausible" :-)
You're providing examples that counter the impact of government innovation, but it's unclear to me whether these are true counterexamples. The history for IBM, for example, is almost entirely intertwined with IBM's role as a defense contractor. Zuse's second computer (the Z2) was funded directly by the German government, presumably because it aligned with Nazi military interests.
(As a whole, these things are impossible to extricate: it's clear that the government doesn't create every possible idea, and there are an infinite number of innovations that can't be assigned back to government sponsorship. But I think there's general academic consensus that computing, aerospace, and biotech all progressed at rates beyond their equivalent private sector capacity due to government investment, and that the resulting progress was "worth it" in terms of returned economic and social value.)
Yes, that's why I talked about Zuse's earlier work. And IBM also had plenty of private business (and would have had more).
> But I think there's general academic consensus that computing, aerospace, and biotech all progressed at rates beyond their equivalent private sector capacity due to government investment, and that the resulting progress was "worth it" in terms of returned economic and social value.
It depends on your counterfactual. If government had taxed the same funds, but spent it on something else, yes, we would have had less progress in these specific sectors.
If they had taxed and intervened less, perhaps we would have had more?
And, of course, we picked these sectors out after the fact. There's plenty more examples of failed government investments.
A lot of people would prefer to pay no taxes, but that’s presumably not your point. Per-dollar, I think the average American taxpayer is probably very happy with the government’s investment in, for example, the Heavy Press Program (= modern airplane airframes) and resilient packet switched networking (= the Internet).
Or more directly: it’s hard to even imagine a contemporary national or international industry without the economic interventions that produced those things.