Comment by Kim_Bruning

Comment by Kim_Bruning 2 months ago

Arctic style base on the moon would be 200 to 500 metric tons of materials to ship. That's 2-5 SpaceX Starship return trips if/when they become operational in a few years time.

There's a number of reservations wrt the practicality of SpaceX Starship of course. That said, it allows us to say there's at least one company projecting a 100 metric ton payload spacecraft in the near future (with prototypes already being tested).

If/when they get it working, remember that SpaceX tends to mass produce their spacecraft, so it wouldn't be just a one off single landing by a one off single lander.

TheRealPomax 2 months ago

No, it's 5 return trips just to get the materials there. That's like... the least problematic part of assembling and running an arctic style base. Especially given that the Arctic has quite a lot of water and oxygen available. And it takes less than a day to send a rescue mission over. The moon has none of that.

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Kim_Bruning 2 months ago

So in the very near future it looks like we'll have the logistics capability to ship 100-150 tons to the moon every 6 months, at a conservative start.
So quick computation: 5 trips is 2 and a half years, and then shipping supplies and then people another year or so. At 100-150 tons per year you can supply (back of envelope[1]) 10-20 'overwinterers'[2] with a fairly comfortable margin for a year, as well as equipment and parts.
There's also no technical reason not to reserve a landing pad for an escape craft that you can rotate every 6-12 months.
So it seems like the technical capability will be there at least. Then it becomes the question of whether that's financially viable already.
Can you elucidate further logistical challenges?
(ps. this post will likely date quickly, since NASA seems to be planning an actual Artemis Base Camp [3])
[1] Back of envelope suggests something like 3 tons of essential supplies needed per person, assuming the modest oxygen and water recycling as available on ISS, and use of nuclear power.
[2] By analogy with the arctic base: 10-20 permanent crew for year-round maintenance, with occasional surges 'on season', bringing their own supplies and equipment.
[3] https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/nasas-artemis-base-camp...

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