Comment by tptacek

Comment by tptacek 3 days ago

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For a non-infantry massed attack on a military asset, the ratio of military to civilian casualties here is probably going to end up being unprecedented in the history of modern warfare; this will probably end up being an extraordinarily surgical attack by any military standard. Civilians are routinely killed in targeted strikes, because targeted strikes are almost always conducted by air. This attack may end up being distinguished by how few civilians were harmed.

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah is mobilized for all-out war here. Hezbollah is depleted from its disastrous efforts in Syria; Israel is fully committed to combat operations in Gaza. The north of Israel has been evacuated for months because of indiscriminate rocket attacks from Hezbollah. Hezbollah is an arm of the IRGC, which is more or less at open war with Israel. If either side could have launched an all-out assault (or, I mean, a more conventional all-out assault than this one), they would have done so already.

dotancohen 3 days ago

  > Hezbollah is depleted from its disastrous efforts in Syria
From what I understand this is inaccurate. Prior to the events of today, Hezbollah moral is very high and they have plenty of armaments from Iran - everything from small arms and uniforms to long-range rockets and drones. In fact, they even produce a very nice local drone made from foam and duct tape - literally.
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  • tptacek 3 days ago

    They lost double digit percentages of their fighting forces, with several thousand additional casualties in non-Hezbollah Lebanese military and paramilitary forces. I'm sure they can duct tape drones together or whatnot, but there are reasons Hezbollah has --- quite notably at this point! lots of stories written! --- not escalated in the south even as the conflict between Iran and Israel heats up.

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rurp 3 days ago

> Hezbollah is depleted from its disastrous efforts in Syria;

There is an awful lot of reporting stating the opposite of this, and I haven't really seen anything credible questioning the fact that Hezbollah has many thousands of missiles and rockets at the ready, along with a sizable number of competent fighters. In fact, the threat from Hezbollah is widely considered one of the largest deterrents Iran has against a direct attack from Israel.

Despite their potential to harm Israel, the group would almost certainly lose an all out war against the IDF. Many if not most of the members would be killed in such a conflict and Lebanon would be plunged into a war zone. So it's easy to see why Hezbollah would be hesitant to get into a full scale war, despite their combat potential.

Since 10/7 a number of top Israeli officials have advocated for a preemptive assault on Hezbollah. So far they have lost the argument but it still could conceivably happen at any time. Eliminating the looming threat and allowing civilians to return to the north are compelling reasons, but the risk of heavy losses and getting bogged down into another quagmire in Lebanon are serious concerns.

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  • tptacek 3 days ago

    The last time Israel and Hezbollah fought, it was a stalemate.

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frabbit 3 days ago

[flagged]

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  • tptacek 3 days ago

    Yes, they have.

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    • frabbit 3 days ago

      The New York Times does not agree with you:

      https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-h...

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      • tptacek 3 days ago

        I don't know what it is that you think that article says, but nobody disputes that neither side has invaded the other. The funny thing to do would be to read your preceding comment and then Google something like [nasrallah israel]. I, uh, think Hezbollah's foot soldiers have been given sufficient notice at this point.

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