Comment by austin-cheney
Comment by austin-cheney 3 days ago
This is exactly what the market predicted. AI to replace full stack developers, and it will overwhelmingly succeed.
There are two reasons why this is predictable with high confidence. None of the more accurate predictions rest upon the trendiness of AI, but instead are vested in the current capabilities of the people primed for replacement and prior employment trends.
Reason 1. Most, certainly not all, full stack developers are paid far too much for what they deliver. Over the past year I have been seeing many interview referrals for just under $200k even though I live in a very low cost of living area of the US. I have turned all of these down despite currently making far less. The high compensation is not enough to make up for working in a team that has no hope deliver to expectations (more on that in the second point) and is hostile to radical change.
Reason 2. Prior employment trends suggest that many employers prioritize hiring and candidate compatibility over ability to deliver. Its a valid business decision that makes sense in the short term, but results in catastrophic debt over the long term. You have to understand that developers are a cost center and not sales people. This means they cost money and do not generate profit, so it makes sense to lower the costs of acquiring these people as much as possible.
Starting about a year or two after I started doing full time JavaScript programming in the corporate space employers started looking at solutions to turn developers into commodities because they were spending too much on hiring with disappointing results. I can remember the entire industry trying to do this on both the front end and back end, but the movement received far less penetration on the back end, which was more entrenched. It received overwhelming success on the front end with tool suites like prototype.js and YUI before jQuery formed a dominating cult of personality. Then once Node got popular and the browsers got faster those front end libraries were largely replaced by large MVC frameworks like Angular and React.
Before the strong focus on external tool libraries JavaScript developers had to do it all themselves. At that time the browsers were too slow for things like Photopea, but the first large browser apps were already rolling out. These were some really excellent developers, but it was really hard to find people who could perform at that level, and of course the pay was ridiculously low. Moving to these external libraries really opened up hiring to people who could not perform otherwise, and that really lowered the cost of candidate selection. Unfortunately, these external libraries were generally slow and sometimes broke when they were just expected to work, but now you had an entire work force that could not live without them.
Reliance upon external tools to keep your job creates insecurity. It limits the availability of design options to what a given set of tools allow, and developer's first priority at work is to retain employment. That insecurity grows over time as applications grow larger, solution delivery slows, developers get further and further more reliant upon solutions in conflict with the desires of the business's profit generators. Its why a lot of people I have talked to over the past year moved on to other things and refuse to go back despite the far higher compensation.
I agree with this. Businesses aren't big on spending for overhead and that's exactly how software and R&D gets taxed in 2024. If you spend 200k on software and only break even you get taxed on 200k (meaning you're fucked).
https://leyton.com/us/insights/articles/senate-blocks-tax-re...
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