Comment by aurareturn

Comment by aurareturn 4 days ago

> You can say the same thing about humans, provided they are allowed to think across as many years/generations as needed.

Isn’t this a good thing since compute can be scaled so that the LLM can do generations of human thinking in a much shorter amount of time?

Say humans can solve quantum gravity in 100 years of thinking by 10,000 really smart people. If one AGI is equal to 1 really smart person. Scale enough compute for 1 million AGI and we can solve quantum gravity in a year.

The major assumption here is that transformers can indeed solve every problem humans can.

wizzwizz4 4 days ago

> Isn’t this a good thing since compute and be scaled so that the LLM can do generations of human thinking in a much shorter amount of time?

But it can't. There isn't enough planet.

> The major assumption here is that transformers can indeed solve every problem humans can.

No, the major assumptions are (a) that ChatGPT can, and (b) that we can reduce the resource requirements by many orders of magnitude. The former assumption is highly-dubious, and the latter is plainly false.

Transformers are capable of representing any algorithm, if they're allowed to be large enough and run large enough. That doesn't give them any special algorithm-finding ability, and finding the correct algorithms is the hard part of the problem!

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aurareturn 4 days ago

> But it can't. There isn't enough planet.
How much resource are you assuming an AGI would consume?

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- wizzwizz4 3 days ago
  
  Are we talking about "an AGI", or are we talking about overfitting large transformer models with human-written corpora and scaling up the result?
  "An AGI"? I have no idea what that algorithm might look like. I do know that we can cover the majority of cases with not too much effort, so it all depends on the characteristics of that long tail.
  ChatGPT-like transformer models? We know what that looks like, despite the AI companies creatively misrepresenting the resource use (ref: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/technology/2024/08/21/h...). Look at https://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.06405:
  > Combining Wu’s method with the classic synthetic methods of deductive databases and angle, ratio, and distance chasing solves 21 out of 30 methods by just using a CPU-only laptop with a time limit of 5 minutes per problem.
  AlphaGeometry had an entire supercomputer cluster, and dozens of hours. GOFAI approaches have a laptop and five minutes. Scale that inconceivable inefficiency up to AGI, and the total power output of the sun may not be enough.
  
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  aurareturn 3 days ago
  
  When computers first became useful, you needed computers the size of rooms to compute. In 2024, my earphones have more compute.
  
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  krige 3 days ago
  
  It's always a hindsight declaration though. Currently we can only say that Intel has reused the same architecture several times already and cranking up the voltage until it breaks because they seem to be yet to find the next design leap, while AMD has been toying around with 3D placement but their latest design is woefully unimpressive. We do not know when the next compute leap will happen until it happens.
  
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visarga 3 days ago

> Scale enough compute for 1 million AGI and we can solve quantum gravity in a year.

That is wrong, it misses the point. We learn from the environment, we don't secrete quantum gravity from our pure brains. It's a RL setting of exploration and exploitation, a search process in the space of ideas based on validation in reality. A LLM alone is like a human locked away in a cell, with no access to test ideas.

If you take child Einstein and put him on a remote island, and come back 30 years later, do you think he would impress you with is deep insights? It's not the brain alone that made Einstein so smart. It's also his environment that had a major contribution.

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exe34 3 days ago

if you told child Einstein that light travels at a constant speed in all inertial frames and taught him algebra, then yes, he would come up with special relativity.
in general, an AGI might want to perform experiments to guide its exploration, but it's possible that the hypotheses that it would want to check have already been probed/constrained sufficiently. which is to say, a theoretical physicist might still stumble upon the right theory without further experiments.

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- westurner 3 days ago
  
  Labeling of observations better than a list of column label strings at the top would make it possible to mine for insights in or produce a universal theory that covers what has been observed instead of the presumed limits of theory.
  CSVW is CSV on the Web as Linked Data.
  With 7 metadata header rows at the top, a CSV could be converted to CSVW; with URIs for units like metre or meter or feet.
  If a ScholarlyArticle publisher does not indicate that a given CSV or better :Dataset that is :partOf an article is a :premiseTo the presented argument, a human grad student or an LLM needs to identify the links or textual citations to the dataset CSV(s).
  Easy: Identify all of the pandas.read_csv() calls in a notebook,
  Expensive: Find the citation in a PDF, search for the text in "quotation marks" and try and guess which search result contains the dataset premise to an article;
  Or, identify each premise in the article, pull the primary datasets, and run an unbiased automl report to identify linear and nonlinear variance relations and test the data dredged causal chart before or after manually reading an abstract.
  
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aurareturn 3 days ago

Assumption is that the AGI can solve any problem humans can - including learning from the environment if that is what is needed.
But I think you're missing the point of my post. I don't want to devolve this topic into yet another argument centered around "but AI can't be AGI or can't do what humans can do because so and so".

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- visarga 3 days ago
  
  I often see this misconception that compute alone will lead us to surpass human level. No doubt it is inspired by the "scaling laws" we heard so much about. People forget that imitation is not sufficient to surpass human level.
  
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