Comment by hwhwhwhhwhwh
Comment by hwhwhwhhwhwh 4 days ago
So ChatGPT has a cutoff date on the stuff it can talk about. This predicting weather sounds like ChatGPT being able to predict next week's news from which it has been trained on. I can see how it can probably predict some stuff like Argentina winning a football match scheduled for next week when played against India given India sucks at football. But can it really give any useful predictions? Like can it predict things which are not public? Like who will Joe Rogan interview in 2 weeks? Or what would be the list of companies in YCs next batch?
Sure, not every model is an autoregressive transformer. And even a GPT could give some useful predictions if you stuff the context window with things it's been fine tuned to predict. We did that to get GPT to play chess a few years ago.
Specifically, I could imagine throwing current weather data at the model and asking it what it thinks the next most likely weather change is going to be. If it's accurate at all, then that could be done on any given day without further training.
The problems happen when you start throwing data at it that it wasn't trained on, so it'll be a cat and mouse game. But it's one I think the cat can win, if it's persistent enough.