Comment by Panzer04

Comment by Panzer04 4 days ago

4 replies

This sounds surprisingly short. Surely the average person with cancer isnt going to live just three additional years?

Went and did a brief lookup (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6710558/) - life expectancy is reduced by at least 3 years, even for the oldest patients, and increases significantly as age at diagnosis goes down.

I suppose from the perspective of an 80 year old, curing cancer would in theory increase life expectancies by ~ 3 years, though I wonder how many people die of "old age" but have an undiagnosed cancer of some form contributing.

pcwalton 4 days ago

It's because of the Gompertz mortality law [1]--the probability of dying at a certain age is exponential. If you assume that the mortality of each age-related terminal illness itself follows the Gompertz law, then eliminating any one of those illnesses won't affect the overall life expectancy much, because exponential growth is so powerful. Even if we had cures for all age-related diseases except, say, Alzheimer's disease, the fact that Alzheimer's disease mortality also follows the Gompertz law (probably a reasonable assumption) would lead to lifespans not dissimilar from our present ones.

Essentially, in order to achieve dramatically longer lifespans, we would need to eliminate, or at least significantly slow, all aging-related causes of death.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz%E2%80%93Makeham_law_o...

The_Colonel 4 days ago

Keeping the body alive is a low bar.

Lost quality-adjusted life years would be a better measure. Many people survive for many years with cancer, but the quality of life drops significantly.

pessimizer 4 days ago

Most people don't have cancer, so the average lifespan reduction of everyone is going to be quite a bit lower than the average lifespan reduction of people diagnosed with cancer.

petercooper 4 days ago

My total guess(!) is because relatively few people lose a large number of years to cancer, due to both the median age of diagnosis and long term survival rates of some common cancers being high? (For example, breast cancer has a 75% 10 year survival rate with a median age of diagnosis of 62. Bowel cancer is about 60% and 71 respectively.)