1970-01-01 4 days ago

AI is just the disguise. It's the economy, just like it is in every recession.

  • riddlemethat 4 days ago

    AI is genuinely good at hallucinating. So is middle management. Probably displacing some of those jobs.

    • GoatInGrey 4 days ago

      Many of these announcements are bluffs as many users here have pointed out. But real LLM-driven layoffs do happen, and from what I have anecdotally seen, they follow a pattern: leadership assumes the new LLM service will make human workers redundant. They then make cuts before the evidence is in. What this means is that today, there are many LLM service deployments that replaced humans while their actual impact remains a mystery. Though it won't be a mystery to leadership forever.

      One example client that shouldn't dox me: Odom Corporation, a beverage distributor. They purchased an LLM-driven purchasing solution and immediately laid off their entire purchasing team, save for a few members who exist on the periphery. A follow-up with them showed that the system was ordering summer beverages coming into the winter (among many other bad purchasing decisions) and causing a dramatic increase in unsold inventory. Since they believe that LLMs will exponentially improve, they're dismissing it as a one-off because this year's models "will be so much better". We attempted to advise differently, but stakeholders got extremely emotional at even small suggestions that there was a fundamental problem. Good luck to them.

      • caconym_ 4 days ago

        Yeah. I keep running into LLMs in customer service functions where I would previously have been talking to a human, and in literally every case they're beyond worthless and I end up talking to a human anyway.

      • dntrkv 3 days ago

        I think the execs are either using it as an excuse to reduce opex to boost share prices or they're actually buying into this delusion that the productivity improvements are right around the corner. Though I don't really buy into that second option since any reasonably intelligent person would wait to see concrete evidence of said improvements before crippling your company based on some hope.

        I also think some of the companies that operate in the AI space are using the layoffs as a form of marketing to prove the capabilities of their tech (while also using it as an excuse to cut costs).

        Anyways, I work at one of the major players in the space and the amount of AI code slop I see on a daily basis is absurd. My prediction is that within two years most younger SWEs will only have a high-level understanding of their code. I already see it happening.

  • bluescrn 4 days ago

    And 'The economy' is just the disguise for getting rid of expensive workers and hiring cheaper workers elsewhere in the world.

  • tombert 4 days ago

    I think AI is the scapegoat for the massive overhiring that happened in 2021 and 2022. These corporations kept thinking that the nearly-interest-free loans were going to keep on going forever, and since no one really knows how to grow a business they spent the money the only way they know how: hiring more people. It didn't really matter if they were filling jobs that were "necessary", just as long as they were filled.

    Now, this is extremely short-sighted and frankly it makes me question the intelligence of these BigCos' executives, because unless they're utterly incompetent at this whole "business" and "living on the planet earth" thing they should have realized that the economy fluctuates and this infinite free money wouldn't last.

    Now that AI is around, these companies finally have a way to do these layoffs while not looking quite as idiotic.

  • seinvak 4 days ago

    AI is definitely a solid reason. Even a 10% increase in developer efficiency translates to roughly 9% fewer workers needed to do the same job. For AI to be cost effective, it must reduce headcount.

    • _heimdall 4 days ago

      Jevon's Paradox will show up too though. When employees get more efficient companies just demand more of them.

      You really have to be in "the room where it happens" to know the motivations behind any one layoff.

      • Chronoz99 4 days ago

        I have noticed this while working in a startup, how efficiency gains impacted work in the last 3 months with better coding models coming in. If you have someone senior that is effective at using these tools and can own the outputs and be capable of correcting things that are sloppy, you are immensely more valuable than 2-3 more developers in the same area of work. It's actually faster to empower fewer people than try to have 3 fast guys where there would be coordination overhead, which would become a bottleneck and bring down a lot of the efficiency gains. A good full stack engineer who can work with these tools at speed with caution is more valuable similarly as it requires less coordination. 3 junior devs shipping 90% good code and 10% slop would make the senior who is reviewing everything the bottleneck.

        • bwestergard 4 days ago

          To help us use your anecdote, could you tell us what product area is your startup is working in?

    • layer8 4 days ago

      Amazon is mostly laying off managers, however, not developers.

focusgroup0 4 days ago

>Amazon axes 16,000 American jobs as it ... relocates to a larger campus in India

https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/10/amazon-to-invest-additiona...

  • kburman 4 days ago

    I realize it’s easy to pattern-match this news to 'hiring in India vs. firing in US' given the current climate, but having worked at Amazon India for 4 years, I can tell you the cuts happen there too.

    Amazon has a history of annual restructuring that hits every region. It isn't necessarily a direct relocation strategy so much as their standard operational churn. The 'efficiency' cuts are happening globally, India included.

    • locusofself 4 days ago

      Sure, but at some point in the past, "Amazon India" was not a thing. Nor was "Microsoft India" and so forth. Surely you can understand what it feels like to be an American tech worker in a super high cost of living area, looking at reduction in headcount and continual offshoring of jobs as time goes by. I live in Seattle area, work at one of these big companies, I work with people in India almost every day and have been to India three times on business. When parts of my department's work was allocated to a new team in India, of course I was nervous about that.

      • kburman 4 days ago

        I get the fear, but look at it from the investor's perspective. The US market is tapped out, Amazon is already everywhere it can be.

        Amazon isn't expanding in India out of love for the country or a desire to see it grow. They are doing it because Wall Street demands infinite growth every single year. Amazon India went from zero to a market leader in a decade not because of charity, but because that is where the new money is.

        To keep the valuation climbing (which sustains everyone's RSUs), they have to capture these emerging markets. If they don't, the stock stagnates, and the compensation model for US tech workers falls apart.

      • geodel 4 days ago

        True. This is Globalism at work. If these companies were not selling goods and services globally then they wouldn't have to deal with setting up offices, staff, pressure from local politicians to hire locals around the world.

        Companies hiring more in cheap labor countries is quite obvious for long time. In case of Amazon I feel most of the stuff that was cutting edge 2 decades back is now low value work where cost is the only edge.

    • yojat661 4 days ago

      The parent comment is obviously cherry picking news and trying to push an agenda.

      Uk investment: https://www.aboutamazon.co.uk/news/job-creation-and-investme...

      Us investment: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-invest-50-billion-ai

      • stuaxo 4 days ago

        The US investment link is broken, and most of the UK jobs are in "fullfillment", some of the least fullfilling jobs - piss bottles all round.

        • cobolcomesback 4 days ago

          And the original link about investment in India is also about fulfillment jobs and even worse, “investing in AI”, aka building data centers, which contribute essentially no jobs at all.

      • no_wizard 4 days ago

        The AI investment is largely earmarked for data centers. Low staff but expensive because the hardware is currently very expensive.

        It's not equivalent in the least. They aren't expanding headcount by 20K, they're building more expensive AI tailored servers

    • dmix 4 days ago

      Amazon also employs 1.5 million people globally, 350k of which are in corporate. These 16k were corporate. Still sucks for everyone involved, I know a corporate sales guy who got laid off Microsoft and it disrupted his life pretty seriously. As Stalin says one's a tragedy, a millions a statistic.

      • darth_avocado 4 days ago

        Since the HN reaction to layoffs almost always is about blaming H1B, here’s a few more things the headline misses:

        1. Cuts were global 2. Cuts in US also include H1B employees 3. 16000 roles are corporate roles, not just tech related, H1B program is not generally utilized for those roles 4. Expansion in India is not just tech. Amazon is a big retailer in India. Understandably if you’re seeing revenue growth in India, you will grow corporate presence in India. If Walmart becomes a massive retailer in EU, it will hire EU nationals in EU. That’s not shipping jobs to EU.

    • ActionHank 4 days ago

      It not pattern matching, it’s literally two things happening at the same time… in a business… that strictly budgets everything…

      It’s not a pattern it’s a plan.

  • darth_avocado 4 days ago

    Amazon is a big retailer in India, believe it or not, if you are a big online retailer in a country, you will have a big corporate presence in that country.

    • ericmay 4 days ago

      > if you are a big online retailer in a country, you will have a big corporate presence in that country.

      Is that true? Could you think of some large retailers in other countries, like the United States, without a big corporate presence? What do you mean when you say "big"? 1,000 employees? 10,000? 100?

      • OJFord 4 days ago

        It's not really on them to think of an example to disprove themselves? Do you have one in mind?

  • jajuuka 4 days ago

    As is the case with many mass layoffs. AI just makes a good reason to claim. It makes you look progressive to investors and it doesn't make you look bad to the public. If AI didn't exist it would be some other excuse to spin this as a positive for the company and not bad for the affected workers.

  • hintymad 4 days ago

    People may have forgotten what happened back in early 2000s. Outsourcing was all the rage, and people in the US were really concerned. And then it came the explosive growth of internet, of mobile, of cloud, of social network, and etc. And then discussion died or at least dwindled enough that we stopped paying attention.

    It looks to me that massive outsource means that companies turn to focus on incremental improvements, which won't require rapid communication in the same location. Besides, the tech has been growing amazingly for decades, other countries have caught up and therefore have growing number of talent. It's a matter of time for them to own more R&D.

    • mips_avatar 4 days ago

      Outsourcing in the 90's/2000's failed because you didn't want to deskill engineers and reduce their scope, you wanted Jeff Dean building pagerank and building Google.

    • aprilthird2021 4 days ago

      Outsourcing happens when the economy forces companies to cut costs. When innovations return substantial growth, most companies don't think much about the costs. We have a rough economy, bad tariff policy, a weakening dollar, and immigration policy that's reducing the overall US population (and with it, spend in the economy). All those factors push companies to need to cut costs

      • dymk 4 days ago

        Convenient how you absolve Amazon of responsibility. They were forced to do it!

        • aprilthird2021 2 days ago

          They aren't the only company in their sector laying off. It stands to reason the economy as an outside factor is heavily involved

  • cobolcomesback 4 days ago

    Where are you seeing “American” jobs? Amazon workers in India were laid off too.

    There are similar stories about Amazon investing in American cities too. Cherry picking a story that Amazon is renovating their office in India is ingenuine.

    • dntrkv 4 days ago

      I don't understand this overreaction to this news. Amazon does massive layoffs every fucking year.

      2026: 16,000

      2025: 14,000

      2024: 500

      2023: 18,000

      2022: 10,000

  • oytis 4 days ago

    It was pretty obvious what is going to follow axing of H1B

    • ferguess_k 4 days ago

      It's even less expensive! Problem solved. Mr. President, we have successfully axed all H1B positions, as you have wished.

      • y-curious 4 days ago

        I guess we just need the other shoe to drop: punish companies that are based in the US and outsource to India. It’ll happen in time if this trend continues

      • boelboel 4 days ago

        Fire h1b positions, make them leave the US and rehire them back in their home country. They can train their new co-workers.

        I'm not serious but I'm sure some people on H1B have had similar happen. From a business POV this would be an ideal situation.

  • axpy906 4 days ago

    Based on what Amazon team you are in more than half are born in India. Makes sense they’d be moving operations there.

  • yodsanklai 4 days ago

    I wonder how this is also related to the attacks on the H1B visa.

    • rat9988 4 days ago

      I'm not american, but it seems to me there are enough american job seekers in CS to justify not needing H1B.

      I'm not sure anyway what is the relationship between the potential difficulty of hiring new folks, and firing current folks in USA to offshore roles, are relates.

      • Rijanhastwoears 4 days ago

        > it seems to me there are enough american job seekers in CS to justify not needing H1B.

        Anecdotal so hold on to your salt but in my social circle here in the US natural-born US citizens vs visa-holders self-select for types of jobs. For example, if my the starting pay is < $80k most of my natural-born American friends don't bother applying. Whereas, my visa-holding friends routinely go well below $50k when searching for jobs or "2 year internships". So, when a company posts a certain type of a job they have a certain demographic in mind already.

        Not saying my US friends are uppity as much as visa holders are desperate.

      • weaksauce 4 days ago

        you see the reason h1b is so popular with the c-suite in a lot of cases is that you get absolute loyalty to a company that holds all the power of your being allowed to stay in the us. you lose the h1b job and you have limited time to find a new valid employer to sponsor you or else you go back to your country. it's one of the reasons musk loves it for twitter.

      • ProllyInfamous 4 days ago

        The "problem" is that you have to compensate natives better / treatment.

      • waynesonfire 4 days ago

        Just look at the open roles for these companies, all India. They're not hiding it. Don't even need H1B.

      • adamsb6 4 days ago

        There's not a surplus of American developers that can pass interview loops at top tech employers.

      • pdntspa 4 days ago

        bUt wE wAnT tHe BeSt oF tHe BeSt!!!11

      • dheera 4 days ago

        > there are enough american job seekers in CS

        To be blunt: Not enough qualified ones. Look at the names of all the top AI papers of the past 3 years, not too many are American.

        When you get bullied in American public schools for being a "nerd" and liking science and math, your country doesn't exactly produce a lot of state-of-the-art STEM professionals. You get a small handful of exceptional people who overcame the adversity but that's it.

        The top 0.1% are perhaps mostly American-educated. The top 10% on the other hand are mostly not American. And you need the top 10% to code for the top 0.1%.

      • yodsanklai 4 days ago

        > there are enough american job seekers in CS to justify not needing H1B.

        As an interviewer in a big tech company, it seems all candidates I interview are foreigners who often graduated in the US. Either the company discriminates (which I really doubt it does), or there aren't enough qualified Americans for some jobs. And even if there are, the largest pool of candidates, the better.

    • hajile 4 days ago

      There haven't been any meaningful attacks on H1b visa. When running for office, Trump said very clearly that H1b was good for his companies (saving money), but bad for the American people.

      Today, he's claiming that we need H1b because we don't know how to build computer chips (~75% come from India with zero advanced production and another ~12% come from China which is also far behind).

      His "massive" $100k increase over 7 years is just a bit over $14k/yr. I had a former H1b programmer (now legal immigrant) I worked with tell me about his experience. Getting paid less than $40k to live in Austin, TX and living with a half-dozen other H1b indenured servants/slaves in a tiny shared apartment just so they could survive the 7 years and get on the path to citizenship.

      Do you think those companies would bat an eye about increasing their expenses from $40k to $54k per year when median dev salary back then (2015) was around $92k/yr? After a decade of inflation, that $14k is even less important.

      Over-immigration with H2b and illegal immigration suppresses blue-collar wages (Bernie Sanders famously called open borders a "Koch brothers proposal"). H1b and outsourcing to India centers suppresses white-collar wages.

      Do you see prices dropping as they cut worker salaries and outsource? Can you even buy things when you don't have a job?

      Trump (and the rest of the uniparty) has enabled corporate theft on a scale that's never been seen before and the chickens are going to be coming home to roost really soon.

      • pram 4 days ago

        Sorry but making around $40k in 2015 would not, under any circumstance, require you to live with 6 roommates in Austin. That is EXTREME hyperbole lol

        My first IT job in Austin in 2010 paid $18 an hour and I had my own apartment and car.

    • oytis 4 days ago

      Very related IMO. Even before Trump US workforce was expensive, now limit the influx of new workforce and hiring abroad looks like a logical decision

      • nerdponx 4 days ago

        Imagine that! It's almost like it's coordinated. Surely the US government would never do something like that on purpose.

  • Buttons840 4 days ago

    Once again the mask of "AI" is really just human labor underneath.

    I've personally seen founders raise millions of dollars because of "AI" that is really just manual labor. I know, I wrote the code that enabled the manual laborers. This was like 10 years ago; the lie is even easier to tell now. And that is so so important in an economy where gaining favor from those who already have money is far better than just selling a good or service.

    • nerdponx 4 days ago

      Back when IBM Watson was a thing, the rumor I heard was that it was actually just a big team of data people and programmers who would bang out stuff in a hurry and then they would pretend like the AI came up with it.

    • GoatInGrey 4 days ago

      I've sat on many meetings and gotten to trial many "AI products", and a good portion of them do have actual LLMs attempting to perform work. Though most of them are brittle wrappers of the big AI labs, with an aspirational markup.

    • browningstreet 4 days ago

      The AI of ten years ago is not the AI of now...

      • sifar 4 days ago

        But the scam is still the same.

      • Buttons840 4 days ago

        The AI of today can do more, yes. But the path to funding and success doesn't require actual AI use, just the appearance of AI. No need to actually sell a good or service in a profitable manner. Just convince those with money that you have some secret-scaling-AI-sauce, and you'll be a success without ever having to sell an actual product.

        The founder I mentioned earlier sold the company and thanked us all for the amazing journey, and then started his next thing in his multi-million dollar house. All built on a lie that made the company look good.

    • conductr 4 days ago

      "do things that don't scale" and what not

  • [removed] 4 days ago
    [deleted]
  • conductr 4 days ago

    This is and always has been an eventuality. It's like fighting inertia or gravity to think otherwise. When the pay disparity is so massive, what is the incentive to hire US talent?

    I say that as an American that is concerned with our local economies and employment but that's not looking through rose colored glasses.

    • unyttigfjelltol 4 days ago

      If a company is looking to offshore a function purely on the basis of cost differential, that’s a sure sign the company believes the function has been commoditized and is immune from competitive selection.

      That’s a specific slice of the workforce, not all of it.

      • conductr 4 days ago

        How small can that slice be though?

        It’s only really needed on true blue ocean innovation and where the company has to find the skills where they exist. If that’s the US, then sure they’ll continue some small slice of employment here for those projects. But as you said, a majority of software is a commodity now (has been for a long time, really). I don't feel like many companies are doing much innovative anymore and I feel people severely underestimate the talent present in other countries. So, even if you pointed to 10 innovation projects at Amazon then I could counter by saying even 85% of those teams could be in India.

  • nova22033 4 days ago

    Amazon's entire business model depends on importing cheap Chinese made goods so this isn't a real surprise.

    • locusofself 4 days ago

      AWS accounts for more than 50% of Amazon net profit though

  • indigodaddy 4 days ago

    Maybe the support scammers can get some real jobs as prompt engineers? Hey I'm trying to find some upside around all this.

    • throwup238 4 days ago

      > Hey I'm trying to find some upside around all this.

      More AWS outages means more breaks from work?

      • bravetraveler 4 days ago

        Sorry, VP says we're migrating. What? Will they see it through? Of course not!